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Regional Housing Insights

Airdrie
March saw 160 homes sold in Airdrie, bringing the total for the first quarter to 395 units. This is 11% lower than last year at this time, but there’s a bit of a silver lining. New listings have been on the rise, which helped ease the sales-to-new-listings ratio down to 57% in March. This also led to more inventory becoming available. In comparison to last year, when supply was tight, we’re now seeing 398 units in inventory—quite the jump from just 164 units last March. With just under two and a half months of supply, the market is gradually becoming more balanced. As the market shifts away from being so seller-focused, home prices are experiencing less upward pressure. In March, the detached benchmark price was $651,300—up from last month and over 2% higher than last year. It’s also not too far off from the peak price of $657,400 we saw last June.

Cochrane
In Cochrane, March sales remained steady compared to last year, and the first quarter has shown a slight increase from 2024, staying well above long-term averages. There’s been an uptick in new listings, but with sales still strong, the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained high at 67%. This has slowed down the growth in inventory a bit compared to some other areas. By March, there were 213 units in inventory—higher than last year’s low levels, but consistent with typical trends for the time of year. This balanced inventory and solid sales are bringing things closer to a more stable market, especially compared to the last few years. Price growth has slowed as a result, but in March, detached benchmark prices reached $686,800, up from last month and more than 5% higher than this time last year. While growth has slowed, March still set a new record high for detached prices in Cochrane.

Okotoks
Okotoks saw 129 sales in the first quarter, a decrease from last year’s 155 during the same period. However, new listings are starting to improve, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio is holding steady above 60%. That means inventory is still quite low. With only 96 homes available in March and 53 sales, there’s less than two months of supply, which has kept pushing prices higher, both monthly and year-over-year. While price growth has slowed since last year, March’s detached benchmark price hit $715,500—setting a new record high for the town and more than 5% higher than last March.

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March 2025: Calgary Housing Market Update

In March, ongoing economic uncertainty, particularly from tariff concerns, affected consumer confidence and slowed housing activity, with sales dropping by 19% year-over-year to 2,159 units. All property types saw declines in sales, especially higher-density homes. However, sales still outpaced those from 2015-2020, a time of significant economic strain. The decline in demand was balanced by a rise in new listings and growing inventories, helping to shift the market back toward more balanced conditions after years of favoring sellers.

March saw over 4,000 new listings, leading to a decrease in the sales-to-new-listing ratio to 54%, which supported further inventory growth. Residential inventory reached 5,154 units, and the months of supply increased to 2.4 months. While the market has shifted from last year’s conditions, there is still limited supply across all property types, providing a better balance between buyers and sellers, though regional and price differences remain.

The increase in supply has also eased pressure on home prices. The benchmark price for residential properties in March remained steady at $592,500, similar to both last month and last year. Prices for detached and semi-detached homes have stayed near their peaks, while apartment and row home prices are slightly below their high points from last year.

Detached Homes
Sales of detached homes in March declined by 10% compared to last year, totaling 1,035 units. However, the increase in new listings helped raise inventory levels. The months of supply for detached homes rose to just over two months, an improvement from last spring. Homes under $700,000 remain in tight supply, but homes priced above $800,000 are seeing more balanced conditions. The benchmark price for detached homes rose to $769,800, up 4% from last year.

Semi-Detached Homes
Sales of semi-detached homes slowed in March, contributing to an 11% decrease in the first quarter. The increase in new listings helped boost inventory, raising the months of supply to 2.2 months. The benchmark price for semi-detached homes reached $691,900, more than 5% higher than last year.

Row Homes
March saw a large increase in new row home listings, with 697 units added. This led to a rise in inventory and a more balanced market. The unadjusted benchmark price for row homes rose 2% year-over-year, reaching $454,000, but it remains nearly 4% below the peak from last June.

Apartment Condominiums
Condo sales in March dropped the most compared to other property types, but they were still above long-term trends. Increased new listings led to higher inventory levels, with the months of supply rising to over three months. The benchmark price for condominiums was $336,100, nearly 3% higher than last year, but still below last August’s peak.

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Booming Start, but Economic and Political Worries Take a Toll

Canada’s luxury real estate market began 2025 with strong momentum, but this pace slowed as concerns over the economy and global political instability emerged. The latest Luxury Market Report shows that while many Canadian markets saw impressive year-over-year sales growth in January and February—particularly in smaller cities like Saskatoon and Montreal—the latter part of the winter season experienced a shift. This change was driven by factors such as stock market fluctuations, tariffs, and rising political uncertainty.

Initially, homebuyers were eager to invest in the luxury market, buoyed by consumer confidence, strong stock market performance, and favorable lending conditions. However, this optimism quickly waned amid escalating tensions between Canada and the U.S.

Smaller cities took the lead early in the year, with sales in places like Saskatoon and Montreal doubling, while cities such as Edmonton and Ottawa saw sales rise by more than 50%. In contrast, larger, higher-priced markets like Hamilton, Greater Vancouver, and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) experienced declines in sales.

Despite these challenges, the luxury segment remains resilient. The GTA’s ultra-luxury market continues to thrive, with several homes selling for over $7.5 million. Similarly, luxury condominiums in Vancouver and Toronto are showing positive trends, particularly following the December 2024 changes to federal mortgage insurance rules, which have supported buyers in markets like Edmonton and Saskatoon.

Shifting demographics are also driving demand, as more people relocate to cities like Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon. There is also growing interest in multi-generational and downsized luxury properties.

While some markets are taking a cautious wait-and-see approach, the long-term outlook for Canada’s luxury real estate remains positive. With increasing wealth, population growth, and an impending wealth transfer, demand for high-end properties is expected to stay strong, even in the face of potential economic challenges.

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A New Approach to Manage Mortgage Risk in Canada

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is considering replacing Canada’s controversial mortgage stress test with a new risk management approach focused on the overall mortgage portfolios of banks rather than individual borrower qualifications. This shift could significantly reshape the housing market by moving from evaluating individual borrowers to managing institutional risk.

Introduced in 2016, the mortgage stress test has been both praised for protecting Canada’s financial system during periods of low interest rates and criticized for limiting homeownership opportunities. It requires borrowers to qualify at either 5.25% or their contract rate plus 2%, whichever is higher. While it helped maintain low default rates during recent rate hikes, economic changes like inflation and trade tensions suggest a more flexible, portfolio-based approach could better address current market challenges.

OSFI’s proposed new method would limit banks to issuing no more than 15% of their mortgages to borrowers with mortgage debt exceeding 450% of their annual income. This shift would move risk management responsibility from individual borrowers to banks, encouraging more strategic lending practices.

The potential changes could affect Canada’s real estate market in various ways, including making mortgages more accessible for some while creating new challenges for borrowers with high debt-to-income ratios. The shift also reflects Canada’s cautious history with mortgage regulation, influenced by past market crashes.

As OSFI continues to evaluate this change, its impact on affordability and overall market stability will be significant. Whether this represents the end of the stress test or the start of a new hybrid approach remains to be seen, but it’s clear that Canada's mortgage regulation will evolve in response to emerging economic realities.

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Ontario’s Housing Challenges

Ontario is facing a severe housing and cost of living crisis, worsened by multiple challenges for home builders.

Housing Shortage and Declining Housing Starts:
Housing starts have sharply dropped, putting Ontario far from its goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031. In some municipalities, starts have fallen by over 35%, creating a supply shortage and pressure on future homebuyers.

Impact of Development Charges:
Development charges in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) have risen significantly, with some municipalities charging over $200,000 per home. These costs are passed to consumers, inflating home prices. Additionally, delays in permitting further hinder homebuilding.

Rising Construction Costs and Economic Uncertainty:
Tariffs are escalating material costs, on top of inflation and interest rate hikes, making construction less viable. Disruptions in the supply chain are causing delays in projects, and higher costs may deter future investments.

Risks of Economic Decline and Currency Depreciation:
A weakened Canadian dollar could further increase the cost of imported materials, raising home prices and discouraging new construction.

Increased Infrastructure Costs:
Tariffs also impact essential infrastructure for new housing, such as water, wastewater, and transit. Rising costs could delay infrastructure projects, reducing the number of homes being built.

Potential Solutions:
Reducing municipal delays and lowering development charges could ease the burden on builders. Exploring ways to reduce land costs and make more land available for development could also help. However, these measures would take time to implement.

Long-Term Opportunities:
While the immediate outlook is challenging, focusing on building Canadian resources and fostering interprovincial trade could strengthen Canada's economy in the future. For now, the housing sector faces significant risks from tariffs and rising construction costs.

The situation is urgent, but it presents an opportunity for long-term economic resilience. However, the immediate impact of tariffs and construction cost increases remains a critical concern for Ontario’s housing market.

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Trade War Concerns Lead to Major Decline in Canadian Home Sales

Canadian home sales took a sharp dip from January to February, with many buyers sitting out as the trade tensions with the United States continued. According to the latest data from Canadian MLS® Systems, sales dropped by 9.8% month-over-month in February 2025, hitting the lowest point since November 2023. This was the biggest decline in sales activity since May 2022.

Senior Economist at CREA, shared, “When tariffs were announced on January 20, we started to see a gap between this year’s sales and last year’s, and it kept growing through February. This led to a significant, though not unexpected, drop in sales activity.” He also noted that this slowdown is showing up in home prices, especially in Ontario’s region.

The sales slump was widespread, with nearly three-quarters of local markets seeing declines. The biggest drops were in the Greater Toronto Area and the Greater Golden Horseshoe areas.

Key February Takeaways:

  • National home sales were down by 9.8% compared to January.

  • February’s sales were 10.4% lower than the same time last year.

  • New listings fell by 12.7% month-over-month.

  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) dropped 0.8% from January and 1% compared to February 2024.

  • The national average sale price was down by 3.3% year-over-year.

New listings also saw a big drop, falling 12.7% from January, reversing the unexpected spike from the month before. With both sales and new listings decreasing at similar rates, the national sales-to-new listings ratio ticked up slightly to 49.9%, compared to 48.3% in January. Typically, a ratio between 45% and 65% is considered balanced.

By the end of February 2025, there were 146,250 homes listed for sale across Canadian MLS® Systems, a 13.1% increase from last year but still below the long-term average of around 174,000 listings for this time.

CREA Chair, mentioned, “The uncertainty over the past few weeks has made some buyers more cautious. However, for others, the softer pricing and lower interest rates could be a great opportunity.”

At the end of February, there were 4.7 months of inventory, up from 4.1 months in January. With a long-term average of five months, this suggests that the market is slowly moving toward more balanced conditions.

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The Benefits of Larger Down Payments

Making a larger down payment usually results in smaller mortgage payments, and this is particularly true in Calgary's current, pricier resale housing market.

A recent study shows that making a larger down payment can significantly reduce monthly mortgage payments by lowering the overall loan amount. Many first-time buyers manage to save up a 5% down payment, but if they receive additional help from family, which is becoming more common in Calgary, it can make a big difference in reducing their future monthly payments.

The study, conducted by a national realty firm, examined the impact of larger down payments on mortgage payments in several Canadian cities, including Calgary. For example, in Calgary, where the average home price at the end of 2024 was approximately $624,000, a $50,000 down payment (around 8%) would result in a monthly mortgage payment of roughly $3,104. Calgary ranked lower than other cities, where $50,000 would cover a larger portion of the purchase price.

In Canada, to qualify for mortgage insurance, a minimum 5% down payment is required. This insurance is necessary unless the buyer can make a down payment of at least 20%. For comparison, Thunder Bay had the lowest average home price in the study at $282,000. A $50,000 down payment there would cover nearly 18% of the home’s price, resulting in a monthly payment of just $1,240.

The study also looked at larger down payments, increasing by $50,000 increments up to $250,000. In Calgary, a $250,000 down payment would cover 40% of the average home price, lowering the monthly mortgage payment to around $1,945. Meanwhile, in Greater Vancouver, where the average home price is significantly higher, $250,000 would only cover about 21% of the $1.2 million price, leading to a monthly payment of $5,009.

Some realtors advise that first-time buyers carefully consider their mortgage options before committing to a 20% down payment to avoid insurance premiums. In some cases, putting down just under 20% can secure a better mortgage rate, and buyers may also be able to arrange bridge financing to assist with the down payment.

With the spring market approaching, it's crucial for buyers to ensure their finances are in order, especially given Calgary's competitive market for single-family detached homes. The benchmark price for these homes rose 5% to $760,500 in February year-over-year.

Experts suggest that buyers should consider using the maximum amount they are approved for to purchase a home that meets their needs. Instead of buying a fixer-upper for $600,000, it might be wiser to use the full borrowing limit to buy a home that doesn’t need repairs, even if it means a slightly higher monthly mortgage payment. Everyone's financial situation is unique, but it's important not to be afraid to stretch your budget if it’s affordable.

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Residential Sales Up in February 2025

In February 2025, the Greater Edmonton Area real estate market saw 1,825 residential units sold, marking a 14.3% increase from January, although down by 7.1% compared to February 2024. New residential listings reached 2,723, up by 13.2% from January but down slightly by 0.4% from the same month last year. Overall, inventory in the Edmonton area grew by 11.4% month-over-month, although it’s still down by 13.4% compared to February 2024.

Breaking it down by property type, 1,015 detached homes were sold, an 18.6% increase from January, but 12.3% fewer than last year. Semi-detached sales were up 7.5% from January and 11.4% higher than February 2024, with 215 units sold. Row/townhouses saw a strong 23.4% increase from the previous month, as well as a 3.9% rise from last year. However, apartment condominium sales dropped 9.2% from last year and 0.3% from January.

The average price of a residential property in Edmonton was $449,554, up 2.6% from January and 10.5% higher than February 2024. Detached homes sold for an average of $567,913, a 1.2% increase from January and 11.9% higher than last year. Semi-detached homes averaged $420,786, a slight 0.1% decrease from the previous month, but up 8.9% compared to last year. Row/townhouses had an average price of $300,818, down 3.5% from January, but up 9.1% year-over-year. Apartment condos saw a significant 7.3% increase from January, averaging $217,373, and a 19.9% rise from the previous year.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price in the Edmonton area stood at $428,800, reflecting a 2.3% increase from January and a 12.3% increase from February 2024.

Detached homes were on the market for an average of 39 days, a 12-day reduction from January. Semi-detached homes averaged 26 days on the market, 11 days less than the previous month. Row/townhouses took 28 days on average, down nine days from January, while apartment condos were on the market for 48 days, reflecting a nine-day decrease. In total, all residential listings spent an average of 37 days on the market, down 11 days from January and 13 days from February 2024.

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Regional Market Update

Cochrane
In February, Cochrane saw a rise in both sales and new listings. Sales reached 75 units, and new listings climbed to 126, both higher than last year and above the long-term averages. Inventory increased by more than 48%, totaling 196 units— the highest seen since spring 2021, though still below typical February levels. This uptick in inventory brought the months of supply to 2.6 months, the highest since the pandemic, but still lower than historical levels. Despite tighter conditions, prices picked up, with the benchmark price increasing by over 5% year-over-year to $577,100.

Okotoks
In Okotoks, February saw a 4% decline in sales, with 45 units sold, but this was still in line with long-term trends for the month. New listings increased by 7%, reaching 60 units, though still below typical February levels. Inventory rose by 19% from 2024 to 69 units, but it was still much lower than the historical average for the month. With tighter inventory, the months of supply dropped to just 1.5 months, well below the usual February levels. Even with these tighter conditions, the benchmark price remained flat compared to January and was just slightly up by under 1% from last year.

Airdrie
The Airdrie market in February followed typical trends, with a slight dip in sales while new listings and inventories rose. Sales dropped by about 9%, totaling 123 units, while new listings increased by nearly 23%, reaching 225 units. This combination of fewer sales and more listings pushed inventory up to 345 homes, more than double what was seen last year. As a result, months of supply went up to nearly three months, which is in line with long-term averages and the highest level since before the pandemic. The benchmark price stayed stable at $537,600, only 1.6% higher than February 2024 but still below fall prices

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February Market Update: Inventory Growth and Slower Price Increases Across Calgary

Inventory levels saw a significant year-over-year increase for the second consecutive month, rising by 76% to 4,145 units in February. Most of the growth was in homes priced under $500,000, driven by an increase in more affordable apartments and townhouses. The overall months of supply remained steady at 2.4 months, double what it was a year ago. Apartment-style units had the most supply, at 3.1 months.

February saw 1,721 sales, which, while above average for the month, were 19% lower than last year and well below the post-pandemic peak. New listings reached 2,830, in line with typical February numbers. The sales-to-new listings ratio was 61%, higher than average but lower than the past three years.

While more homes were listed, fewer were sold compared to February 2024, signaling the easing of the seller’s market. This shift has slowed price increases, which is good news for buyers.

The unadjusted benchmark price for residential properties in February was $587,600, relatively stable compared to late 2024 and about 1% higher than last year. Prices varied across districts, with the City Centre and North seeing declines, while the East district saw the highest growth at over 3%.

For detached homes, sales dropped by nearly 20% to 765 units, but new listings rose by almost 6%. This led to a 61% increase in inventory, reaching 1,698 units. Prices rose across all districts, with the City Centre seeing the largest increase at nearly 8%. The benchmark price for detached homes was $760,500, up about 5% from last year.

In the semi-detached market, new listings increased by 7%, but sales dropped by nearly 14%, pushing inventories up by 46%. The benchmark price rose by 7% to $683,500, driven by gains across most districts, with the City Centre and South districts seeing the biggest increases.

Row housing saw a 9% drop in sales and a 4% increase in new listings, raising inventory to 655 units, more than double last year’s levels. The benchmark price increased nearly 3% year-over-year to $446,880.

For apartment condominiums, sales fell by 26%, but new listings reached a record high. Inventory rose by 90%, and the benchmark price increased by almost 4% to $334,200, with the West district seeing the most significant growth at over 8%.

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A Look at Canada’s Housing Market

The housing market is showing some signs of growth, but caution remains, according to a recent report. It points to the uncertainty surrounding a potential trade war with the U.S. as a key concern. RBC Economics warned that U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports could hinder the housing recovery.

On a more positive note, demand has been picking up recently, fueled in part by lower mortgage rates. There’s also been an increase in housing inventory across Canada since 2021, though it still falls short of long-term averages.

In terms of ownership costs, they remain higher than typical, making up around 52% of household income. While this is an improvement from the peak in 2023, where it reached nearly 64%, it still exceeds the levels seen in the 2000s and 2010s.

The decline in immigration levels presents both challenges and opportunities for the housing market. While fewer immigrants may reduce demand and help moderate prices, it could also lower sellers' confidence in the market.

Looking ahead, RBC forecasts that home sales will likely remain close to historical averages, thanks to lower interest rates. Property values are expected to increase modestly through 2027. Alberta is projected to see growth, with prices and sales rising by 4-5%, while British Columbia and Ontario are expected to experience stable conditions.

RBC also cautioned that a trade war with the U.S. could lead to economic instability and job losses, potentially reducing demand even further. However, this could also prompt the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates even more, which would make mortgages more affordable and homes within reach for more buyers.

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Affordable Housing Hotspots in Toronto

Toronto's real estate market may still be one of the most unaffordable in the world, but it's seen a noticeable decline over the past year. While the biggest drops have been in the condo market — which has suffered after its peak driven by investors — there's now an abundance of listings, giving buyers a lot more options.

Though prices have remained relatively flat due to a lack of significant activity, there’s still room for negotiation. In fact, several neighbourhoods are seeing even detached homes fall below the crucial $1 million mark.

A recent market analysis has shared a list of these more affordable areas, which are perfect for anyone looking to buy on a budget.

The cheapest place in the GTA for single-family homes right now is Central Oshawa, where you can snag a house for about $655,000 — less than the cost of a typical condo in most of the region, including downtown Toronto. Other affordable spots in Oshawa include Eastdale-Donevan and Windfields, with median home prices of $760,000 and $782,500, respectively.

By comparison, the average price for a detached home in the GTA was around $1,377,430 in January 2025, while a semi-detached home is about $1,047,728. In the 416 area, those numbers jump to $1,579,386 and $1,154,505, respectively.

The analysis also found that out of over 400 neighbourhoods, only 53 had single-family homes selling for under $1 million. Additionally, 64% of prospective buyers said they’d prefer a house over a condo.

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Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.