The Best Place to Work, Buy & Sell Real Estate

Mortgage professionals are advising first-time homebuyers and real estate investors to take advantage of the current market conditions, as the Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25%, signaling stability to start the year. With interest rates remaining low, it’s seen as a rare opportunity for first-time buyers to enter the housing market at more affordable prices than they would have faced in previous years. However, while lower rates have made homeownership more accessible, many buyers, particularly those in their 30s, may find that entry-level properties no longer meet their space needs, as household requirements grow with age.

For prospective buyers, the choice between a fixed or variable-rate mortgage is crucial, as it depends on their personal risk tolerance and financial situation. Some may prefer the predictability of a fixed rate, while others may opt for the potential savings of a variable rate. The decision ultimately comes down to how much risk one is willing to take on in a market that continues to evolve amid global uncertainties. Despite this, the current low-rate environment has been a point of confidence for many first-time buyers, encouraging them to take the plunge into homeownership now rather than wait for uncertain future conditions.

Real estate investors are also finding opportunities in Canadian Real Estate Investment Trusts, which have become more attractive with the central bank's steady interest rates. These REITs, which focus on property purchases and real estate transactions, offer a potential for growth, particularly in office properties as vacancy rates decline. Investors are being encouraged to reassess their portfolios, as the office market shows signs of a modest recovery. Despite broader economic uncertainties, the local real estate market presents an opportunity for both homebuyers and investors to capitalize on favorable conditions, making this an ideal time for those looking to enter or expand in the market.

Quebec's real estate market in 2025 defied national trends, showing remarkable growth despite broader economic uncertainty. Sales increased across all segments, with the province recording its third-best year ever in terms of activity. Prices rose by about nine percent, and sales grew by an average of eight percent from the previous year. This surge was fueled by favorable financing conditions, such as declining interest rates and extended mortgage amortization periods, alongside a growing shift of renters transitioning into homeownership.

However, the surge in activity also exacerbated the affordability crisis. By the end of 2025, many households reached the limits of their debt capacity, slowing sales and signaling a potential deceleration in 2026. The market's listing-to-sales ratio remains historically low, emphasizing the shortage of available properties. As inventory remains tight, sellers maintain the upper hand, supporting higher prices. Although experts predict more moderate price growth in 2026, the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to continue.

Quebec's major cities, especially Quebec City and Montreal, were key drivers of the market's strong performance. Quebec City saw a 17 percent increase in single-family home prices, making it one of Canada's hottest housing markets. While Montreal's price growth was less dramatic, it still saw notable increases, particularly in the luxury market. Resort regions, such as Mont-Tremblant and the Eastern Townships, also saw increased demand, attracting affluent buyers seeking vacation properties and outdoor lifestyles.

Despite this growth, the market faces a significant shortage of homes, especially single-family homes and multi-unit "plex" properties. Although the condo market showed slight improvements in supply, the demand for single-family homes remains high, keeping prices elevated. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers continues to push for measures to increase supply, but until inventory levels rise, the market will remain heavily tilted in favor of sellers, making homeownership more difficult for many prospective buyers.

As the market shifts, real estate professionals in Quebec are adjusting to a new reality. What was once a stable market is now marked by increased competition and price sensitivity, particularly in larger cities like Montreal. Agents are also navigating changes in regulations, including tighter consumer protection laws and reforms in rental and condo regulations. Despite these challenges, the strong demand and low inventory suggest that Quebec's real estate professionals will continue to stay busy, though they must adapt to an increasingly complex and dynamic market.

Calgary's housing market, shifted from a seller’s market to more balanced conditions as supply in new homes, rentals, and resale properties increased. This shift coincided with a return to more typical demand levels, primarily due to slower migration. As a result, price pressure eased, particularly in apartment and row home segments, which saw the largest supply increases. This stabilization in prices helped balance the market, although broader economic factors such as migration and employment trends continued to influence housing dynamics.

Looking ahead to 2026, supply levels for higher-density homes are expected to remain high due to the completion of 2025's record-high new home starts. However, the rise in inventory is likely to cool new home starts in 2026, easing supply pressures. Demand for housing is expected to remain in line with long-term trends, with previous population and job growth sustaining sales. However, with migration slowing and employment growth softening, no significant uptick in housing demand is anticipated, pointing to a more stable market without major price increases.

The recent MOU regarding pipeline development and regulatory shifts offers long-term economic upside for Alberta, but these changes are unlikely to affect the housing market in 2026, especially given the weaker energy price environment. While sectors like tech, food processing, and petrochemicals may provide economic growth, slower migration and high living costs will continue to limit housing demand. Elevated supply in the market combined with stable demand will likely keep conditions balanced, but this may extend the time needed to absorb the current inventory of resale properties.

Calgary's housing market in 2026 will likely remain in a buyer’s market, especially in the apartment and row home segments, where the supply increase could put downward pressure on prices. Detached and semi-detached homes are expected to see more stability in pricing, but overall residential prices are expected to ease slightly. Buyers will likely have more negotiating power, especially in denser housing types. Although price declines are expected in specific segments, the overall market will likely experience only moderate price reductions.

In 2025, Alberta's resource-driven economy outperformed expectations, but migration levels slowed as employment growth in Calgary faltered. With slower job growth, high unemployment, and a reduction in migration, housing demand is expected to decrease in 2026. While some sectors like healthcare and government will continue to see growth, overall employment gains will be limited, keeping demand in check. This shift in migration and employment will result in more balanced housing market conditions, consistent with long-term trends, and reduce the previous price volatility seen in recent years.

In December 2025, Canadian home sales declined by 1.9% compared to the same period in the previous year, reflecting a year characterized by economic uncertainty. Despite lower interest rates, rising unemployment and global trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., kept many potential buyers on the sidelines. While some markets experienced stagnation, others, particularly in smaller cities, saw more favorable conditions. For example, St. John's, Regina, and Quebec City stood out, with Quebec City seeing a striking 17% year-over-year increase in home prices. This growth was partly driven by a full percentage point reduction in the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate. However, overall market activity remained subdued, as affordability and limited housing supply continued to be key constraints, especially in larger urban markets.

Looking ahead to 2026, experts expect a modest 5.1% increase in home sales across the country. Much of this uptick is expected to come from regions like southern Ontario and British Columbia, where sales were slower in 2025. However, challenges persist. Affordability will remain a significant barrier for many, particularly in major metropolitan areas like Toronto and Vancouver, where prices remain high despite a cooling market. These two cities, in particular, saw significant drops in sales, with Toronto recording its lowest level of home sales since 2000 and Vancouver not far behind. The combination of economic uncertainty, including concerns over the ongoing U.S. trade war and the potential fallout from renegotiations of the trade pact, has kept many buyers cautious. Experts warn that any potential rebound in these markets would likely be slow, as economic fears continue to weigh heavily on sentiment.

In contrast, some regions, including parts of Quebec, the Atlantic provinces, and the Prairies, have seen more stable or even robust housing markets. Areas like New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba have remained relatively hot, with homes still more affordable compared to larger urban centers. While these markets haven’t experienced the dramatic price hikes seen in southern Ontario and B.C., they have benefited from consistent demand. However, even in these areas, there are signs of a market correction following the pandemic-induced housing surge. Experts suggest that much of this correction is tied to the rapid growth seen during the pandemic, which is now slowing as the market stabilizes. The outlook for 2026 will largely depend on broader economic conditions. If the labor market improves and economic growth picks up, housing demand could strengthen, helping to stabilize prices. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected economic recovery could lead to further price declines. While the Bank of Canada is not expected to make immediate changes to interest rates, ongoing economic uncertainty and trade risks could continue to impact the housing market in the coming year.

Vancouver’s housing market is entering a phase of gradual adjustment rather than experiencing sharp price swings or dramatic changes. After two years of fluctuating interest rates and stalled transactions, the market is stabilizing. This shift is driven more by slow-moving fundamentals, such as population growth, household formation, and construction timelines, than by short-term sentiment or headlines. These factors shape the market's direction in a more predictable, steady manner, offering clearer insights into future trends.

Housing cycles are often viewed through price changes, but prices are just an outcome, not the cycle itself. The true cycle involves shifts in market activity, the availability of homes, and the ability of households to transact. In Vancouver, early signals of a market change can be seen in sales volumes, new listings, and rental conditions, with price changes following behind. Current data shows that while sales are low and inventory is up, the market is adjusting rather than correcting. Affordability constraints are limiting transactions, but demand is still there, preventing significant price drops.

Demand in Vancouver is driven by population growth and household formation, but these are not the same. While the population has grown, much of the increase has been absorbed by the rental market, as many newcomers rent or delay purchasing. Rising interest rates have further restricted potential buyers, deferred ownership demand while pushing more people into rentals. This shift in demand helps explain why Vancouver’s market hasn’t seen a major price correction. Demand exists, but affordability is preventing it from turning into transactions.

On the supply side, Vancouver’s housing market faces a significant lag. While construction activity has remained steady, the delivery of new homes takes years, especially for multi-family developments. Rising construction costs and financing challenges have slowed down the pace of new builds, and approval timelines add further delays. As a result, supply struggles to keep up with demand, especially in more affordable segments. This mismatch contributes to ongoing pressure on the market, even though sales activity has slowed.

Affordability remains the key constraint. Though home prices have eased, higher interest rates have raised borrowing costs significantly, making homeownership less accessible. This has limited the number of buyers, and those who are already homeowners are reluctant to sell due to manageable carrying costs. Fewer listings are contributing to market stagnation. At the same time, developers struggle to sell new units when buyers can’t secure financing. With rental demand still strong, the market is adjusting slowly, and Vancouver’s housing market is likely to continue this gradual shift in the years to come.

In 2025, the housing market experienced a notable shift after years of strong price growth, largely due to improved supply levels and reduced demand. The number of new listings surged to over 40,000, a 9% increase from the previous year, easing the pressure that had previously favored sellers. Reduced migration and ongoing uncertainty throughout the year helped balance market conditions. As a result, sales fell by 16% to 22,751 units, but this was still in line with long-term trends, indicating that the market was stabilizing after several years of rapid growth.

The rise in inventory played a significant role in this market transition. With more properties available, conditions shifted to favor buyers, particularly in apartment condominiums and row homes, where supply increases put downward pressure on prices. The overall annual average benchmark price for residential properties declined by 2%. However, the price trends varied significantly across property types and locations. Detached homes saw modest price increases of 1%, while apartment-style condos experienced a nearly 3% price drop. The North East district, in particular, saw significant price declines, while the City Centre remained relatively stable.

In the semi-detached market, prices rose by nearly 3% to an average of $685,850, despite a slight 8% drop in sales. Although this segment was smaller, it followed a similar pattern to detached homes. Meanwhile, row homes saw a 17% drop in sales, but with new listings on the rise, the market shifted to a more balanced state by the end of the year. As a result, prices for row homes declined by 2%, with the most significant price drops occurring in the North East and North districts.

The apartment condominium sector faced the largest adjustment, with sales dropping by 28% from 2024. However, demand remained higher than long-term averages due to an increase in available supply, particularly from purpose-built rental apartments. This shift contributed to a more buyer-friendly market in the second half of the year, pushing prices down by 3%. The steepest price declines were seen in the North East, while the West district experienced relative stability.

Overall, the 2025 housing market reflected a transition from a seller’s market to one of more balance, driven by higher supply and tempered demand. This shift led to price adjustments across various property types, with some areas experiencing price growth while others saw declines, particularly in sectors with increased inventory. The market’s balance by the year's end marked a significant change from the tight, high-demand conditions of previous years.