The Best Place to Work, Buy & Sell Real Estate

A recent analysis using artificial intelligence suggests Calgary's housing market may soon experience some relief. The research examined how policy reforms, immigration trends, and construction activity are influencing housing markets across major Canadian cities, including Calgary. By leveraging AI, researchers were able to more effectively analyze real-time data and offer insights into future housing price movements and market conditions.

The study highlights that aggressive construction efforts and shifts in immigration policies are helping to narrow the gap between housing supply and demand in Calgary. In 2024, the city saw median home prices peak at approximately $740,000. However, projections indicate a potential decline of over $100,000 in the coming two years, signaling a shift towards a more balanced market.

Despite this expected price drop, experts caution that any relief in housing affordability might be temporary. A significant influx of new residents is anticipated by 2026, which could reignite demand and place renewed pressure on housing prices. This suggests that the current cooling trend may only last a short while before the market heats up again.

The researchers behind the study hope their findings will support better-informed local development policies. They emphasize the need to streamline building permits and accelerate construction to keep up with growing population pressures. These measures could help moderate price increases and improve overall housing accessibility in the long term.

Looking further ahead, the report estimates that Calgary home prices could stabilize between $650,000 and $730,000 by 2032, assuming housing supply continues to keep pace with demand. This forecast underlines the importance of proactive planning and policy implementation to ensure sustainable growth in the housing sector.

Home sales in Canada went up again in July, making it the fourth month in a row with more people buying homes. Sales rose by 3.8% from June, and compared to July last year, they were up 6.6%. This increase shows that more buyers are feeling confident and ready to get back into the market after a tough period caused by inflation and global trade issues.

Even though more homes are being sold, the cost of buying one is still a big problem for many people. The average home price dropped slightly to $979,000 in July, which is 5.5% lower than it was last year. This small drop might help a few buyers, but in cities like Toronto, prices are still high. While buyers now have a bit more power to negotiate, homes are still not very affordable for the average person.

Toronto has been leading the country in home sales. Since March, the number of homes sold there has jumped by more than 35%. This is a big turnaround after years of price increases and economic struggles. But not every part of the market is doing well. Condos, especially smaller ones usually bought by investors, are still having a hard time selling. Fewer foreign workers needing rental units might be part of the reason.

Across Canada, there were over 42,000 homes sold in July. The market is getting tighter because the number of homes for sale hasn't changed much, while sales keep rising. The average home price across the country was $672,784 in July — a small increase of 0.6% from last year. If this pattern continues and more homes aren’t listed for sale, prices could start rising faster again.

Experts think total home sales for 2025 might still end up lower than last year, but things could start to improve more in 2026. Affordability is still a challenge, especially with high interest rates. While the central bank isn’t expected to lower rates again soon, the government might bring in new policies in the fall that could affect the housing market. Still, any improvements in affordability will likely be slow and won’t return to how things were before the pandemic.

The Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight lending rate at 2.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting where rates have been held steady. This decision comes amid significant economic uncertainty, particularly concerning U.S. trade policy, which continues to be unpredictable. The looming August 1 deadline for trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. has added to this uncertainty, and new trade actions are still being considered. As a result, the Bank is closely monitoring the economic situation, especially in light of the effects on Canada's economic activity.

In its latest economic analysis, the Bank estimated that Canada’s second-quarter GDP contracted by 1.5%, largely due to a decline in exports to the U.S. following the implementation of tariffs. Growth in household spending has also been sluggish, further dampened by ongoing economic uncertainty and weakened labor market conditions, especially in sectors affected by trade restrictions. These factors have contributed to a more cautious outlook for Canada’s economic growth in the near term.

Inflation also remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 1.9% in June. The rise in shelter costs, particularly rent, has been the primary driver of inflation. However, underlying inflation is estimated to be around 2.5%, which remains within the Bank’s target range of 1-3%. The Bank continues to monitor inflation closely, balancing the downward pressures from slower economic activity with the upward pressures from higher tariffs on goods, particularly imports from the U.S.

Looking ahead, the Bank has outlined three potential scenarios for Canada’s economic future based on trade policies. If current tariffs remain in place, GDP growth is expected to pick up modestly to 1% in the second half of 2025 and rise further to 2% by 2027. If tariffs are reduced, GDP growth could rebound more quickly, with less upward pressure on inflation. However, if tariffs escalate, Canada’s GDP is likely to continue declining, further increasing inflationary pressures. Given these uncertainties, the Bank of Canada has emphasized its focus on price stability, particularly through monitoring inflation expectations and the impact of higher tariffs on Canadian exports, business investment, and household spending. The next interest rate announcement is scheduled for mid-September 2025.

Canada's housing market has long struggled with a significant supply gap, making it harder for many Canadians to access homeownership. A recent discussion on a popular podcast shed light on the challenges facing first-time homebuyers, drawing attention to the gap between housing supply and demand. In response to this, the Canadian government has introduced a new initiative aimed at addressing the issue. The proposed GST/HST rebate for first-time homebuyers is intended to stimulate new construction and ease the financial burden for those hoping to enter the housing market.

This new rebate complements an existing program, offering additional financial relief to qualified buyers. By reducing the costs associated with purchasing a new home, the initiative aims to make homeownership more achievable for those who have previously struggled with high costs. The broader goal is not just to make housing more affordable but to increase the availability of homes through the stimulation of new construction, which in turn could help meet growing demand.

The importance of such measures has been underscored by recent data, revealing that a large percentage of Canadians are concerned about the increasing unaffordability of housing. Many individuals, particularly younger families, are struggling to see a path to homeownership. The introduction of this rebate is seen as a step in the right direction, providing much-needed relief to first-time buyers and helping to alleviate some of the financial pressures they face. As more Canadians express a desire to own homes, policies like these offer a potential solution to bridge the gap.

The rebate offers a full reduction of the GST/HST on new homes priced up to $1 million, saving buyers significant amounts on their purchases. Homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million are eligible for a partial rebate, while those priced above $1.5 million are excluded from the program. To qualify for this rebate, buyers must meet specific criteria, including being a first-time homebuyer and purchasing a newly built or substantially renovated home. The eligibility window spans from 2025 to 2036, ensuring that the rebate applies to homes built within this timeframe.

While the introduction of this rebate is seen as a positive move, there are suggestions that further measures may be needed if it does not lead to a substantial increase in new housing starts. Expanding the rebate to include more buyers, such as those looking to downsize, could encourage even more construction and help free up existing housing stock. These additional steps may provide further relief for Canadians, ensuring that the housing market can better meet the needs of its growing population. The hope is that these efforts will help create a more balanced housing market, where supply and demand are better aligned, ultimately making homeownership a more attainable goal for many Canadians.

In July, inventory levels across Calgary experienced a notable increase, reaching 6,917 units, the highest recorded since before the pandemic. This surge in supply was particularly prominent in areas that have seen new community development, contributing to a greater variety of housing options. While the overall market saw improvements in supply across all property types and districts, the largest changes were observed in the newer suburban communities, where additional housing has helped stabilize availability.

However, the growing supply has led to downward pressure on home prices in certain parts of the city. Calgary's residential benchmark price has been declining gradually over the last few months, dropping by 4% from its peak in June 2024. Despite this dip, the price reduction is not uniform across all types of homes or areas. While some sectors of the market, like apartments and row-style homes in the North East and North districts, have seen steeper declines, these price drops have not completely undone the gains achieved in recent years.

The slowdown in sales activity further compounded the effects of rising inventory. In July, sales fell by 12% compared to last year, while new listings rose by over 8%, signaling a shift towards a more balanced market. The competition from newly built homes, along with slower sales and a lack of rate cuts by the central bank, contributed to the cooling of the market. Apartments, in particular, faced higher inventory levels, with the months of supply surpassing four months, while detached and semi-detached homes maintained more balanced conditions with around three months of supply.

Detached homes saw a slight uptick in the months of supply, rising to three months for the first time since 2020. Although sales activity slowed to 1,031 units in July, new listings remained robust, resulting in more inventory and a shift towards a balanced market. Notably, price adjustments varied by district, with the North East and East areas experiencing larger price declines of about 5%, while the City Centre saw a modest price increase of nearly 2%. These regional differences reflect how local market conditions can significantly affect overall trends.

In the semi-detached and row home segments, price stability was the overarching trend despite the increase in supply. Semi-detached homes saw a 1% increase in benchmark prices compared to last year, with some districts, such as the City Centre, witnessing higher gains. Row homes, however, experienced a slight decline in price, down by about 4% compared to the previous year. In terms of supply, both property types showed a rise in the months of supply, pushing the market closer to equilibrium, especially in areas with higher inventory levels, such as the North East and North districts.

In Canada, homeownership continues to be a challenge for many, especially with the rising costs of housing and mortgage rates. Yet, a surprising trend has emerged: young families, specifically those with a primary earner under 35 years old, are seeing a decline in their average mortgage balances. Despite the overall increase in mortgage debt across other age groups, the mortgage balances for younger families have dropped by $17,000 since 2022. This shift is notable, as it defies the broader trend of rising debt in the housing market.

One of the main reasons for this reduction is the growing number of young people who are either delaying entering the housing market or opting for more affordable housing options. While the number of new households being formed in this age group has surged, many of these households are choosing to rent rather than buy. With homeownership increasingly out of reach, young families are prioritizing affordability, which results in fewer first-time homebuyers and, consequently, a reduction in average mortgage balances.

Another factor contributing to the decline in mortgage balances is the increasing equity that younger homeowners are building. Over the past couple of years, the value of real estate assets has risen, while the value of mortgages has decreased. This suggests that a growing number of young households are managing to pay off their homes entirely. As more younger families own their properties outright, the overall mortgage balance for this group continues to decline, reflecting higher equity positions and greater financial stability.

Additionally, a rise in prepayments has also played a role in reducing mortgage balances. Faced with higher borrowing costs, many younger homeowners are focusing on paying down their mortgages faster. However, the ability to make these prepayments raises questions about how young families are funding them. For many, financial support from older relatives may be playing a key role. This support, often in the form of gifted down payments, is helping young families qualify for mortgages and reduce their debt obligations, making homeownership more accessible despite the high cost of borrowing.

Real estate fraud in Canada has become an increasingly concerning issue, impacting both homebuyers and financial institutions. This type of fraud typically involves misrepresentation of information, such as income, employment status, or property ownership, with the goal of securing a mortgage or property under false pretenses. As housing prices have risen and affordability has become more difficult, some individuals are turning to dishonest methods to gain access to financing or to profit from illegal schemes. The effects of such fraud are far-reaching, often resulting in significant financial losses for banks, lenders, and even unsuspecting homeowners.

One common form of real estate fraud is mortgage fraud. This happens when someone provides false or misleading information on a mortgage application—such as inflating income or hiding debts—to qualify for a loan they otherwise wouldn’t receive. Sometimes, this is done by the buyer, but it can also involve real estate professionals or mortgage brokers who intentionally manipulate documents. When the borrower is unable to make payments, lenders are left with unpaid loans and foreclosed properties, which can destabilize the market if widespread.

Title fraud is another serious type of scam, where criminals steal someone’s identity and use it to transfer ownership of a property without the true owner’s knowledge. Once they have control of the title, they can take out loans using the property as collateral or even attempt to sell it. Victims of title fraud often only discover the crime after receiving foreclosure notices or discovering new debts in their name. Protecting against this kind of fraud requires careful monitoring, proper ID verification, and land registry protections.

To combat the rise in real estate fraud, financial institutions and industry regulators are calling for stronger safeguards. One recommendation is the implementation of fast, secure income and identity verification systems, which would reduce the ability for fraudulent applications to succeed. Increased awareness and education are also key—both buyers and professionals need to understand the risks, recognize red flags, and report suspicious activity early. The government, too, is being urged to update policies to better reflect the complexity and technology of modern real estate transactions.

One of the most effective ways to protect yourself from real estate fraud is to work with a trusted and experienced REALTOR® and mortgage broker. These professionals understand the process thoroughly and are trained to detect inconsistencies or warning signs in transactions. A reputable REALTOR® will guide you through paperwork, confirm property details, and ensure everything is legally sound. Similarly, a qualified mortgage broker will help you secure financing that is transparent and based on verified information. Choosing professionals with strong reputations and credentials can significantly reduce your risk and give you peace of mind during one of the most important financial decisions of your life.

The Canadian real estate market showed signs of recovery in June, with national home sales increasing for the second consecutive month. Sales rose by 2.8% from May to June, largely driven by strong activity in the Greater Toronto Area, where cumulative growth since April reached 17.4%. Despite these monthly gains, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its annual forecast, now expecting a 3% drop in total home sales compared to 2024. While prices have stabilized, overall market performance remains below previous highs, and CREA notes that conditions vary greatly by region.

One notable shift is the decrease in new property listings, which fell by 2.9% in June. This came after several months of rising inventory. At the same time, the national average sale price saw a 1.3% year-over-year decrease. CREA is also predicting a 1.7% drop in average home prices compared to last year. These figures suggest that although prices have steadied, overall affordability remains a concern, and the pace of new listings may not be enough to balance market dynamics fully.

Falling interest rates are providing some relief to buyers, with the Bank of Canada reducing its policy rate from 5% in April to 2.75% currently. Lower rates can increase purchasing power, and experts believe this could help unlock more buyer demand later in the year. However, the market still faces challenges. The Toronto condo market, for example, has seen a dramatic slowdown. Sales of condominium apartments in the first quarter of 2025 were down 21.7% compared to the same period in 2024, and new condo sales are reportedly at their lowest level in 30 years.

Despite these hurdles, CREA believes the housing market is gradually turning a corner. Job stability, lower rates, and rising inventory could create favorable conditions for those planning long-term homeownership. Activity is expected to rebound in 2026, with national sales projected to grow by 6.3%. Still, CREA cautions that economic uncertainty remains high, and the recent announcement of new U.S. tariffs on Canada could further complicate the outlook. Regional differences will continue to play a key role, with some provinces like British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario expected to post declines, while others may show moderate growth.

A new survey of 2,000 Canadians shows that many homeowners are feeling nervous about renewing their mortgages. About one in five people with a mortgage renewal coming soon said they are worried about how much their new monthly payments will be. This is because many people got their mortgages when interest rates were very low, and now those rates are going up, which means they might have to pay a lot more each month.

In fact, 1.2 million mortgages are expected to be renewed this year. Around 85 per cent of them were taken out when the Bank of Canada’s main interest rate was at one per cent or even lower during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now that interest rates are higher, many of these homeowners may be surprised by how much more they’ll need to pay when their mortgage renews.

The survey also showed that most people — 68 per cent — prefer fixed-rate mortgages because the payments stay the same and are easier to plan for. But people with variable-rate mortgages, where the payments can change, were almost twice as likely to make extra payments to lower their debt. This shows they are trying to reduce their mortgage faster when they can.

More than 70 per cent of homeowners said they have recently fixed up their home or plan to do so soon. Some people are also thinking about renting out part of their home to help pay for housing costs. At the same time, more Canadians are worried about mortgage fraud. About 34 per cent are very concerned, which is more than last year. Experts say the government should make it easier and safer to check people’s income to help stop this kind of fraud.

At its core, housing prices are determined by the balance between supply and demand, with all other influences ultimately affecting one side of that equation. Over the long term, economic fundamentals—such as income levels, job growth, and construction activity—are the primary drivers of the market. However, in the short term, buyer and seller sentiment can push prices above levels that are economically sustainable, creating temporary imbalances before the market corrects itself.

Population growth plays a fundamental role in shaping housing markets. When more people move into a specific area, demand for housing naturally increases. This can create competition for a limited supply of homes, putting upward pressure on prices. On average, each household consists of about 2.5 people, meaning that even modest population increases can result in a significant rise in housing demand. Regions experiencing rapid population growth must plan accordingly to expand infrastructure, housing stock, and local services to accommodate new residents.

Home price growth reflects how the value of residential real estate changes over time. This is influenced by a variety of factors, including supply and demand, interest rates, construction activity, and broader economic trends. For potential homebuyers, rising prices can limit affordability and affect long-term financial planning. For homeowners, on the other hand, appreciation in home value can increase personal wealth and equity. Understanding market trends and local housing conditions is essential for making informed decisions about when and where to buy.

Savings and home equity form the foundation of a buyer’s purchasing power. Savings consist of disposable income set aside after taxes and expenses, while equity refers to the portion of a current home’s value that the owner truly owns. Together, they determine how much a buyer can use for a down payment, closing costs, or renovations. Higher savings and equity not only improve a buyer’s position in competitive markets but also reduce the amount of borrowing needed—potentially leading to more favorable mortgage terms.

Financing, meanwhile, is shaped by a combination of income, interest rates, and employment stability. Mortgage lenders assess how much money a buyer can reasonably put toward monthly payments based on their income and current rates. Higher interest rates can significantly raise mortgage costs, while lower rates increase affordability. Employment status is also critical; stable income is a prerequisite for mortgage approval. In areas with high unemployment, access to financing can be limited, slowing homeownership growth even when housing supply is sufficient.

A significant mortgage renewal wave is on the horizon, with TD Economics estimating that 60 per cent of outstanding mortgages will renew by the end of 2026. Of these, 40 per cent are expected to renew at higher rates, presenting financial challenges for many households. The peak of these renewals is anticipated between late 2025 and early 2026. Households falling into this 40 per cent bracket are the most vulnerable to increased mortgage payments, potentially straining their monthly budgets and overall financial flexibility.

For example, a homeowner who secured a $500,000 five-year fixed-rate mortgage at 2.5 per cent in 2020 will likely face renewal at around four per cent. This would result in an additional $320 in monthly payments. However, not all borrowers will be affected the same way. Some mortgage holders — particularly those with short-term or variable-rate mortgages — may actually benefit from the current trend of declining interest rates. These borrowers, part of what TD calls the “early relief group,” often carry larger balances but may experience substantial drops in their mortgage payments upon renewal.

Others who entered the housing market during periods of rising interest rates could see mixed outcomes. Their new rates will depend heavily on the timing of their renewal and their original mortgage rate. While the overall mortgage renewal wave has been described as a potential “shock,” much of the sting has lessened. Financial conditions for many homeowners have improved since 2020, and home equity has increased, partly due to a 25 per cent rise in the national home price index. This gives some borrowers the option to refinance, extend amortizations, or prepay to ease the impact.

Still, economic stress will persist for some, particularly those facing job losses or reduced incomes. TD Economics anticipates the unemployment rate may rise to 7.3 per cent by the end of the year, which will coincide with the heaviest mortgage renewal period. Despite this, Solovieva remains cautiously optimistic, noting that the overall mortgage burden across the country is starting to ease. With mortgage-service costs expected to trend downward into 2026 — though still above pre-pandemic levels — many Canadians may find they have the resources and strategies to weather this transition.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), supply increases have been most notable in the apartment and row home segments, with inventory now exceeding long-term averages by over 30%.

“Supply has improved across rental, resale, and new home markets, providing more options for those exploring their housing choices,” stated CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, the combination of additional supply, stable lending rates, ongoing uncertainty, and concerns about potential price adjustments is causing many prospective buyers to remain cautious.”

 This decrease in demand has contributed to the citywide benchmark price dropping to $586,200 in June, representing a 3.6% decline compared to last year. The most significant decreases occurred in the apartment and row home sectors, both down more than 3% annually, while prices for detached homes remained relatively stable.

 Detached home sales in June totaled 1,194 units, roughly 6% below both last year and the previous month. The decline was most noticeable in higher-priced homes competing with new-builds, especially in the City Centre and North East areas, where year-over-year sales fell by more than 20%. Despite this, detached home prices remained largely steady, with the benchmark price decreasing by less than 1% year-over-year to $764,300. The North East was the only area to experience a buyer-favored market, which contributed to a 4% annual price decline there.

 Among attached homes, semi-detached properties experienced modest price growth, with the benchmark reaching $696,400 in June—remaining unchanged from May and increasing by 1% compared to the previous year. However, this overall stability masked significant regional differences, with record-high prices in the City Centre contrasted by annual declines of over 2% in the North, North East, and East areas.

The row and apartment segments were more noticeably impacted by rising supply levels. Inventory of row homes increased to 1,167 units in June, while the sales-to-new listings ratio declined to 50%. Consequently, prices fell to $450,300—down more than 3% from the previous year. The North East saw nearly a 6% year-over-year decrease in prices.

In the apartment condominium market, both sales and new listings declined, but overall inventory continued to grow due to slower absorption rates. The months of supply approached four, contributing to a further decrease in the benchmark price to $333,500, marking a decline of more than 3% compared to last year. The largest price declines were observed in the North, North East, and South East districts.