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Trade War Concerns Lead to Major Decline in Canadian Home Sales

Trade War Concerns Lead to Major Decline in Canadian Home Sales

Canadian home sales took a sharp dip from January to February, with many buyers sitting out as the trade tensions with the United States continued. According to the latest data from Canadian MLS® Systems, sales dropped by 9.8% month-over-month in February 2025, hitting the lowest point since November 2023. This was the biggest decline in sales activity since May 2022.

Senior Economist at CREA, shared, “When tariffs were announced on January 20, we started to see a gap between this year’s sales and last year’s, and it kept growing through February. This led to a significant, though not unexpected, drop in sales activity.” He also noted that this slowdown is showing up in home prices, especially in Ontario’s region.

The sales slump was widespread, with nearly three-quarters of local markets seeing declines. The biggest drops were in the Greater Toronto Area and the Greater Golden Horseshoe areas.

Key February Takeaways:

  • National home sales were down by 9.8% compared to January.

  • February’s sales were 10.4% lower than the same time last year.

  • New listings fell by 12.7% month-over-month.

  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) dropped 0.8% from January and 1% compared to February 2024.

  • The national average sale price was down by 3.3% year-over-year.

New listings also saw a big drop, falling 12.7% from January, reversing the unexpected spike from the month before. With both sales and new listings decreasing at similar rates, the national sales-to-new listings ratio ticked up slightly to 49.9%, compared to 48.3% in January. Typically, a ratio between 45% and 65% is considered balanced.

By the end of February 2025, there were 146,250 homes listed for sale across Canadian MLS® Systems, a 13.1% increase from last year but still below the long-term average of around 174,000 listings for this time.

CREA Chair, mentioned, “The uncertainty over the past few weeks has made some buyers more cautious. However, for others, the softer pricing and lower interest rates could be a great opportunity.”

At the end of February, there were 4.7 months of inventory, up from 4.1 months in January. With a long-term average of five months, this suggests that the market is slowly moving toward more balanced conditions.

Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.