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Regional Differences in Recovery

Canada’s housing market showed mixed results in November. Several cities, including Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, and parts of the Prairies, saw home resales rise by more than 5% from October, marking a shift from earlier in the season. However, Toronto and Hamilton continued to face declines in both sales and prices, reflecting ongoing economic challenges in southern Ontario.

Price trends remain divided. In Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto, abundant inventory and strong buyer bargaining power have led to falling home prices. In contrast, tighter inventory in places like Quebec and the Prairies has supported stable price growth. This regional divide is likely to persist into 2026, though a broader recovery is expected as economic conditions improve.

In Toronto, market activity remains sluggish, with sales 25% below pre-pandemic levels. The composite MLS Home Price Index has dropped 5-6% from a year ago, and prices are expected to continue falling, particularly for condos. Factors like economic uncertainty, lower immigration, and job market challenges are dampening demand despite interest rate cuts.

Montreal, meanwhile, is experiencing a steady recovery. Home resales rose slightly by 1% from October, with single-detached homes seeing a 5.8% price increase. Tight inventory and moderate buyer demand are driving these gains, and the market is expected to continue improving.

Vancouver saw a modest increase in resales, up 4% from October and November. However, affordability remains a challenge, with prices down 3.9% from a year ago. High inventory levels are expected to continue putting pressure on prices.

Calgary’s market is also picking up, with home resales jumping over 5% despite fewer new listings. Price declines, down 4.6% year-over-year, are making homes more attractive to buyers, while a surge in new construction is keeping inventory high.

Overall, Canada’s housing market remains uneven, with some regions recovering faster than others. As economic conditions improve and interest rates stay lower, a gradual recovery is expected, but affordability challenges will continue to shape market trends in the months ahead.

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Housing Market Cools, but 2026 Promises Growth

In November 2025, Canadian housing markets showed modest signs of stabilization, with home sales decreasing by 0.6% month-over-month. Although sales were still significantly higher than earlier in the year, the market has largely plateaued since the summer. Experts suggest that the mid-year surge in demand has now transitioned into a holding pattern as the year comes to a close. Price reductions were noted in some areas, with sellers adjusting expectations to close deals before the year’s end. This shift, combined with a steady inventory level, indicates a market that is maintaining balance as we move toward 2026.

The number of homes available for sale across Canadian MLS® Systems saw a slight decline in November, down 1.6% from the previous month. However, new listings are still 8.5% higher compared to November 2024, suggesting that while activity is subdued, there is still a consistent level of supply entering the market. The national average home price dropped 2% year-over-year, sitting at $682,219. The MLS® Home Price Index also decreased by 0.4%, with a year-over-year dip of 3.7%. Despite this, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 52.7%, indicating a market that remains relatively balanced, though not yet fully reflective of the long-term average.

Looking ahead, experts remain cautiously optimistic about 2026. The shift in interest rates, along with a softened economic outlook, has created an environment where many potential buyers are poised to re-enter the market. While 2025 was initially expected to see a rebound, the unforeseen economic disruptions have delayed a full recovery. However, with inventory levels remaining steady and interest rates stabilizing, there is anticipation for a more normalized housing market in the spring of 2026. For those looking to navigate the market in the coming year, working with a local real estate professional is advised to ensure readiness for what’s next.

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Why Now Is the Time to Enter Canada’s Housing Market

The Canadian housing market is gradually improving, with affordability showing signs of progress across many regions. Home prices have stabilized in most areas, and in some of the country's most expensive markets, they have even declined. Mortgage rates have also leveled off, providing a more predictable environment for potential buyers. After years of tight supply, more homes are finally entering the market, creating a better balance. Despite these positive developments, many Canadians remain hesitant to jump back into the market, waiting for prices or interest rates to fall further.

This hesitation stems from the economic uncertainty of recent years. High interest rates, political instability, and global trade tensions have created a climate of caution, leaving many to wait for the next crisis to hit. This wariness is understandable, but the data shows that the Canadian housing market is stabilizing. Real estate professionals report growing confidence, particularly among young families who are beginning to believe the reset is over and it’s time to move forward.

Affordability has notably improved, as mortgage rates have returned to more normal levels after years of ultra-low borrowing costs. These low rates were an anomaly caused by crises like the 2008 financial collapse and the covid-19 pandemic. With rates now stabilizing in the three-to-four percent range, buyers no longer need to worry about rates dropping further. This clarity has sparked renewed demand, as potential buyers feel more confident in making decisions.

Looking ahead, home prices are expected to see modest increases across Canada. Detached homes are likely to see small gains, while condominium prices may dip due to lower immigration and reduced demand from investors. In cities like Greater Montreal and Quebec City, prices are expected to rise more sharply due to economic factors like public works projects and limited supply. For first-time buyers, this environment presents a rare opportunity: lower competition, more inventory, and stable prices.

However, the larger challenge remains: Canada still faces a significant housing shortage. While progress has been made with record-high housing starts in major markets, continued investment in new housing is necessary to meet demand. Additionally, building the right types of homes, such as duplexes and triplexes, is essential to ensure affordability without contributing to urban sprawl. With political stability and ongoing reforms, Canada’s housing market can continue to evolve and meet the needs of future generations.

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Toronto Considers Land Transfer Tax Increase

As Toronto City Council evaluates a proposal to increase the municipal land transfer tax (MLTT) on higher-value properties, there is rising concern among residents about the city's reliance on this revenue stream. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) recently conducted polling showing that many Toronto residents feel the burden of these taxes is already too heavy, particularly as housing affordability continues to be a significant issue. While the city argues that taxing luxury properties more heavily will help fund municipal services without burdening working- and middle-class families, critics are wary of the consequences, especially as home prices in Toronto continue to soar.

The proposal aims to introduce higher graduated rates for properties valued over $3 million, with the idea that those purchasing luxury homes should contribute more to the city's coffers. The office justifies this by pointing out that only a small percentage of buyers—around 2%—would be impacted by the new tax rates, which would range from 4.4% to 8.6% depending on the value of the property. The revenue generated, according to proponents, would help offset the financial challenges faced by the city, particularly as it grapples with economic uncertainty. However, while the increase in taxes would only incrementally raise the cost of buying luxury homes, the proposal has raised concerns among those who believe that Toronto’s housing taxes are already too high.

On the other side of the debate, critics argue that increasing the MLTT will only worsen housing affordability for all residents, not just luxury homebuyers. TRREB has pointed out that Toronto already has one of the highest land transfer tax burdens in North America, with an average homebuyer paying upwards of $34,000 in combined municipal and provincial land transfer taxes. Many buyers, especially first-time buyers, are already struggling with the high upfront costs, which are exacerbated by taxes that haven’t been updated in years. TRREB warns that further hikes in the MLTT could suppress housing supply, as homeowners may be less inclined to sell their properties, exacerbating competition for entry-level homes and making affordability even more elusive for Toronto's residents.

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Vancouver’s Housing Market Faces Historic Low Sales

The Greater Vancouver area is on track to experience its lowest home sales in over 25 years, a reflection of broader economic and market challenges. As of November, residential sales remained relatively stable, with 1,846 properties changing hands. However, the total number of homes sold in 2025 is expected to fall short of previous years, possibly dipping below the lowest annual figure recorded this century. Contributing factors include ongoing affordability issues, economic uncertainty, and mortgage rates that, while lower than in recent years, are still elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. These factors have created a market where many potential buyers are either hesitant or unable to act, leading to a decline in overall sales.

Although sales activity has been slow, home prices in the region have remained relatively steady. Detached homes in Greater Vancouver are still fetching an average price of over $2 million, while condos are priced just under $800,000. In contrast, the Fraser Valley has seen more significant price declines, with home values dropping by 19% since March 2022. This variance highlights the differing conditions in different areas of the region, with some markets feeling the effects of affordability concerns more acutely. The overall trend paints a picture of a market in flux, with many buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach and sellers adjusting their expectations in response to the current economic climate.

Meanwhile, the rental market in Metro Vancouver has also been showing signs of change, with rents continuing to decline. The average asking rent for a one-bedroom apartment dropped by nearly 10% compared to the previous year, signaling relief for renters who have faced sky-high prices in recent years. Experts note that while the reasons behind the decrease in rents remain unclear, factors such as migration patterns and construction delays may be contributing to the shift. Even so, the broader outlook for the rental market appears positive for tenants, with reduced competition and more negotiating power for those in search of rental properties. With the economy slowing and fewer people entering the housing market, renters are experiencing a welcome change in the Vancouver area’s traditionally tight housing landscape.

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November Real Estate Market: Seasonal Adjustments and Regional Variations in Price and Inventory

In November, the real estate market saw typical seasonal slowdowns, with sales, new listings, and inventory all decreasing compared to the previous month. Sales totaled 1,553 units, while new listings reached 2,251, leading to a 69% sales-to-new-listing ratio. This helped ease some of the pressure on inventory, which stood at 5,581 units—28% higher than last year and 15% above typical November levels. Despite the seasonal adjustments, supply levels remained elevated, signaling ongoing market shifts.

The increase in available properties was most notable in higher-density housing sectors, like row and apartment-style homes. The additional supply, partly due to new homes transitioning to the resale market, placed downward pressure on prices in these sectors. Apartment and row-style homes saw year-over-year price declines of 7% and 6%, respectively. Detached homes saw a smaller 2% price drop, but when considering year-to-date data, prices have remained slightly higher than last year.

For detached homes, sales in November were 823 units, similar to previous years. Although inventory remained above last year’s levels, it aligned with long-term trends. The months of supply for detached homes remained around three months, suggesting a balanced market. However, the benchmark price for detached homes dropped by nearly 2% from November last year, though it remained 1% higher when looking at year-to-date figures. Price declines were more pronounced in specific areas, such as the Northeast, where competition from new homes and increased supply weighed on prices.

Semi-detached homes experienced stable sales, with new listings higher than typical for November, leading to the highest inventory levels in five years. Despite the increase in supply, prices remained relatively stable, with the unadjusted benchmark price at $671,700. This sector saw the strongest year-to-date price growth at nearly 3%, driven largely by gains in the City Centre. The months of supply for semi-detached homes remained slightly above three, signaling a market approaching balance.

Apartment condominiums struggled the most with excess supply, as new listings remained high and inventory reached record levels. Sales dropped to long-term trend levels, and months of supply edged near six, placing significant downward pressure on prices. The benchmark price for apartments was $309,300, 7% lower than the same time last year. Despite a more modest 2% year-to-date decline, certain areas, such as the North East, saw steeper drops, while the West district held steady.

Regionally, Airdrie, Cochrane, and Okotoks showed varying trends. In Airdrie, inventory rose due to more new homes entering the resale market, causing slight price adjustments. Year-to-date prices for detached homes were down by nearly 1%. Cochrane experienced a record-high level of new listings, leading to higher inventory, but prices remained above last year’s levels. In Okotoks, sales improved compared to last month, supported by higher new listings, though overall supply remained tight. Prices in Okotoks remained higher than last year, despite some minor adjustments.

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Vancouver’s Struggling Housing Market

The housing market in Metro Vancouver continues to pose significant challenges for prospective homebuyers, despite recent improvements in affordability for certain property types. Although slower sales and slightly more affordable condos offer a glimmer of hope, the underlying issues remain concerning. Single-family homes, which are still out of reach for most first-time buyers, dominate the region's real estate market. While some price reductions and lower interest rates have helped make condos more accessible, they still consume a substantial portion of household income. Without financial assistance from family or other sources, many buyers are left struggling to enter the market, making Vancouver's housing crisis one of the most expensive in the country.

Affordability is notably better in the condo market, where recent price drops and the easing of mortgage rates have provided some relief. For example, the cost of purchasing a condo in Vancouver now absorbs 48 percent of the average household income, a significant improvement from 60 percent in late 2023. However, even with these changes, the affordability gap between Vancouver and other Canadian cities remains stark, especially when compared to places like Calgary, where condos absorb only 22 percent of household income. Despite the relative affordability of condos, overall home sales in Metro Vancouver have continued to stagnate, as many buyers expect further price declines. This, combined with a rising number of active listings, has created a buyer's market, but one where prices are under downward pressure, benefiting those who can afford to wait.

Looking ahead, the housing market’s long-term trajectory is uncertain. While demographic shifts and increasing immigration suggest a potential rebound in home sales by the late 2020s, the current market conditions do not inspire immediate optimism. Although new housing supply is at a high, with thousands of new homes being completed each month, the construction industry faces significant downturns, with layoffs and cancellations of projects becoming more common. This downturn in construction is expected to exacerbate housing shortages in the future, potentially driving prices back up. To address these challenges, experts argue that improving affordability in the short term will require a combination of lower interest rates, flat or falling home prices, and a more robust increase in household incomes. Additionally, addressing the bureaucratic hurdles in the development process, such as reducing development charges and streamlining permits, could alleviate some of the pressure on the housing market and help stabilize costs in the long run.

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Canada's Ambitious Housing Plan

Canada’s plan to double homebuilding over the next decade has generated cautious optimism, with experts recognizing the potential of new construction methods but raising concerns about implementation. The government’s investment in modular and prefabricated construction methods is seen as a critical move, especially given the country’s underdeveloped manufactured-home sector. By adopting these technologies, Canada could not only accelerate housing production but also create an export industry, utilizing its abundant raw materials. However, the success of this strategy will depend on the private sector’s ability to embrace these new techniques and on whether builders can overcome the prevailing uncertainty about the market.

While the government’s $13 billion investment in the Build Canada Homes program is a promising start, there are still many unanswered questions about how the plan will unfold. The goal of increasing housing starts to 500,000 annually by 2034—up from 245,000 in 2024—remains ambitious, and current plans suggest that only a small portion of that target will be met through government-led projects. Most of the construction is expected to be handled by private developers, who will be incentivized through financial support and fast-tracked processes. This reliance on the private sector raises concerns about whether the necessary investment and resources will materialize on the ground.

One key issue is the potential lack of focus on social housing, an area where the private sector has historically been less active. Experts suggest that while large-scale projects in major cities are important, the government should also direct resources toward smaller municipalities and rural areas, where the housing crisis is often more acute. Without a clear breakdown of the $13 billion and how it will be allocated, there are concerns that funding may be disproportionately focused on larger urban centers, leaving smaller communities underserved. Additionally, scaling up modular construction to the levels needed for this plan will require substantial investment in both infrastructure and workforce development, adding complexity to an already challenging undertaking.

The labor shortage in the construction industry is another critical challenge to the success of this housing initiative. According to a report from Deloitte Canada, the country will need an additional 290,000 workers in the construction sector by 2030 to meet the goal of doubling homebuilding. Even with increased productivity, this gap is unlikely to be bridged without significant investments in workforce development and attracting new talent to the industry. With an aging workforce and growing demand for public infrastructure projects, Canada will need to tap into diverse labor pools, including underrepresented groups, and increase efforts to recruit younger workers and women into the field.

In conclusion, while the federal government’s housing plan offers a potential path forward for addressing Canada’s housing crisis, its success will depend on overcoming a range of hurdles. The plan’s focus on modular construction and private-sector involvement is promising, but it requires clear policy direction, adequate investment, and a skilled workforce to meet the ambitious target. If these challenges are addressed, Canada could see a transformation in its housing sector that helps meet both immediate needs and long-term goals. However, without a comprehensive strategy to address these obstacles, the plan may struggle to reach its full potential.

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Canadian Housing Market Sees Resurgence in October

After a brief pause in September, the Canadian housing market saw a resurgence in October, with home sales increasing by 0.9% month-over-month. This uptick follows a steady trend that had been ongoing since April, suggesting that underlying demand for homes remains resilient despite broader economic uncertainties. The rise in sales activity comes at a time when interest rates are approaching levels that could stimulate more activity in the market, fueling expectations for continued growth in housing demand into 2026. However, this anticipated market boost is likely to be tempered by ongoing economic challenges, including inflation concerns and global financial instability.

In October, the number of new listings saw a slight decline of 1.4%, which, when combined with rising sales, led to a tightening in the sales-to-new listings ratio, reaching 52.2%. While this figure indicates a more active market, it remains below the long-term average of 54.9%, suggesting the market is not yet fully balanced. The MLS® Home Price Index also saw a modest 0.2% increase from September, though it remains down 3% compared to the same time last year. On a national scale, the average home price in Canada was reported at just over $690,000, reflecting a slight year-over-year decrease of 1.1%.

Looking ahead to the winter months and into 2026, there are signs that demand is building, with the number of properties listed for sale remaining close to the long-term average. The market's inventory at the end of October stood at 4.4 months, indicating a relatively stable environment, though still below the five-month long-term average. This suggests that while conditions are conducive for sellers, they are not extreme enough to create a clear seller’s market. As the spring market approaches, experts are keeping a close eye on the potential for pent-up demand to drive significant market movement, with expectations that the upcoming months could bring further shifts in housing trends.

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Longer Mortgages, Bigger Costs

The proposal for a 50-year mortgage, suggested in the U.S., has sparked mixed reactions. While it could lower monthly payments for homebuyers, experts argue the long-term costs are significant. Extending the loan period means paying much more in interest, as early payments would mainly cover interest rather than the principal. This slow build-up of equity could leave homeowners vulnerable to financial risk, especially if market conditions change.

Critics also raise concerns about the interest rates on a 50-year mortgage, which would likely be higher than a 30-year loan, reducing any potential savings. With minimal savings in monthly payments, and the risk of slow equity growth, the 50-year mortgage may not offer the benefits it's touted to provide. Many experts believe the solution to housing affordability lies in increasing housing supply, not extending mortgage terms.

In Canada, the idea of extending mortgage amortization periods is unlikely to gain traction due to differences in the mortgage systems. Unlike the U.S., where mortgages are securitized and sold, Canada's system is more risk-averse, relying on deposits for mortgage funding. This makes longer mortgages less feasible in Canada. Over the past two decades, Canada has reduced amortization periods, and there’s little appetite for extending them again.

Canada has already tightened rules, cutting amortization from 40 years to 35 years after the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the standard amortization is 25 years for insured borrowers and 30 years for uninsured borrowers. While there have been discussions about extending amortization for first-time homebuyers, these changes have been limited, and there is no indication that Canada will follow the U.S. model of longer mortgages in the near future.

Experts caution against extending mortgage terms in both countries, arguing that while it might ease monthly payments, it increases long-term financial risk. The focus, they say, should be on increasing housing supply to address affordability rather than offering longer loan periods.

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Preparing for 2026 in Uncertain Times

The latest federal budget brings mixed signals for the economy, with rising immigration numbers and uncertainty about inflation and interest rates. While the market may not bounce back immediately, demand will eventually rise again. The real challenge for many agents isn’t the market itself — it’s the inaction that's holding them back. Waiting for a perfect moment to act means you’re already behind. Opportunity doesn’t announce itself; it’s created by those who act now, even in uncertain times.

The real issue many agents are facing isn’t a tough market, it’s a lack of consistent effort. From neglecting key contacts and procrastinating on follow-ups, to relying too heavily on low-converting ads, agents are leaving money on the table. Success comes from doing the work: making calls, prospecting regularly, and focusing on relationships. While AI tools can help with tasks like writing content, they can't replace the essential work of staying visible and consistently engaging with your network.

To make the most of the coming year, start planning now. Review your results from this year, set a solid marketing budget, and break your goals down into actionable steps. Time-block your schedule, focus on daily tasks like calls and follow-ups, and use AI to amplify your efforts, not replace them. The market may be unpredictable, but your effort doesn’t have to be. If you want to be ready for 2026, the time to prepare is now.

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October Sees Solid Sales in Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan's housing market maintained its strength in October, posting the second-highest sales numbers ever recorded for the month. With 1,433 homes sold, sales were slightly down—by almost six percent—compared to last year’s record-breaking figures. However, these results still far exceed historical norms, marking the 28th consecutive month of above-average sales activity that began in mid-2023. This ongoing momentum reflects strong, sustained demand in the province’s real estate market, despite the slight dip in sales.

The number of new listings also saw a notable uptick in October, with 1,922 homes coming onto the market, an 11 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024. Despite this rise in listings, available inventory remained well below long-term averages, largely due to continued high sales volume. The result is a market where supply is still significantly constrained—nearly 50 percent lower than the 10-year average—posing an ongoing challenge for buyers trying to find available homes in the province.

Even amidst global economic uncertainty and broader market shifts, Saskatchewan's housing sector continues to show remarkable resilience. The benchmark price for residential properties in the province stood at $362,700 in October, down slightly from September but still nearly six percent higher than the same time last year. This sustained price growth, alongside continued strong sales in major urban centers like Saskatoon and Regina, suggests a high level of confidence in Saskatchewan’s real estate market. As the year progresses, the outlook remains positive, with expectations for sales to remain above historical averages well into November.

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Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.