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A Hopeful Outlook for First-Time Buyers

For years, home ownership in Canada's largest housing markets seemed like an unattainable dream, especially for first-time buyers in cities like Toronto and Vancouver. Prices soared to all-time highs, and interest rates made securing a mortgage a challenge for many. However, recent shifts in the market are offering a glimmer of hope. As interest rates stabilize and property prices remain relatively low, prospective buyers are beginning to re-enter the market. According to real estate experts, this could be one of the best times in years for first-time buyers to make a move.

Many professionals describe the current situation as a "buyer's market," particularly for those interested in purchasing condos. The key difference now is that buyers have more bargaining power and ample time to explore their options. With a high supply of properties and less urgency in the market, buyers are no longer under the pressure to act quickly, as they were in previous years. In cities like Toronto, what used to be an unaffordable option, like a small condo priced at $600,000, is now offering decent one-bedroom units. In some cases, even moving slightly outside the city can offer buyers the opportunity to purchase larger homes, like three-bedroom properties.

While many are optimistic about the market conditions, some experts caution that potential buyers shouldn't feel rushed. There's no immediate pressure to "buy now or never," as home prices are unlikely to spike dramatically as they did in previous years. Economic uncertainties, like ongoing trade tensions and interest rate fluctuations, suggest that homebuyers still have time to carefully consider their choices. Real estate analysts believe that the next several months will bring more clarity to the market, and buyers can afford to take a measured approach instead of rushing into a decision.

The Canadian real estate market experienced significant volatility over the past few years, with home prices peaking in early 2022 before seeing a sharp decline. Between February 2022 and mid-2023, the average price of a home in Canada dropped by nearly $150,000. However, as interest rates decreased in late 2024, the market began to stabilize, and there's now a noticeable uptick in home resell activity across the country. While there's still some caution in the air, the rebound of pent-up demand points to a potential market turning point, especially in Ontario and British Columbia.

For first-time buyers, however, the picture isn't so clear-cut. While lower interest rates and more supply have improved affordability in some markets, the reality of rising prices in certain regions like Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, and parts of Atlantic Canada still poses challenges. Even in Toronto, where one-bedroom condos are more affordable than before, the need for a substantial income to secure a mortgage remains. With a 20% down payment on a $600,000 property, a potential buyer would need to earn at least $100,000 annually. Additionally, beyond the cost of the mortgage, there are property taxes, maintenance fees, and insurance to consider, making it essential for first-time buyers to weigh all financial aspects carefully before taking the plunge.

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Housing Market Trends in Calgary and Surrounding Areas – August 2025

Improved housing supply has shifted Calgary’s real estate market, contributing to price declines across several property types. Apartment and row-style homes have seen the most notable reductions due to significant increases in available inventory, while detached and semi-detached homes have experienced more modest pricing changes. As of August, the city’s total residential benchmark price dropped to $577,200—down from the previous month and nearly four per cent below the same period last year.

Sales activity in August totaled 1,989 transactions, representing a nine per cent decline year-over-year. Despite this drop, demand remains stronger than long-term averages. However, a surge in new listings has pushed total inventory to 6,661 units—the highest level for August since 2019. The resulting sales-to-new-listings ratio sits below 60 per cent, indicating a shift toward more balanced market conditions and away from the sellers’ market dominance of recent years.

Detached homes saw a softening in sales and a rise in new listings, particularly in areas like the North East, where buyer market conditions are emerging. Inventory in this segment reached its highest August level since 2020. The benchmark price for detached homes declined to $755,600—down nearly one per cent from both the previous month and the previous year. While the North East and East districts experienced the steepest declines, the City Centre recorded continued price growth.

In contrast, the semi-detached and row housing segments showed mixed results. Semi-detached homes held relatively tighter market conditions, with fewer new listings and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 67 per cent. This helped limit inventory growth and kept prices more stable. The benchmark price for semi-detached properties stood at $687,200—slightly below last month but still one per cent higher than last year. Meanwhile, row homes continued to face rising inventory and weakening sales, pushing prices down for the fourth month in a row. August’s benchmark price for row homes dropped to $439,600, nearly five per cent lower year-over-year.

The apartment condominium market has been the most impacted by the increase in supply. Inventory rose to a record 1,979 units in August, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to just 51 per cent. These supply pressures led to five straight months of price declines, with the benchmark apartment price falling to $326,500—almost six per cent below last year’s level. The North East district experienced the steepest price decline at over 11 per cent, followed by smaller drops in the City Centre and West districts.

Airdrie is also adjusting to shifting market conditions. Sales in August fell to 152 units, contributing to a 12 per cent year-to-date decline. Meanwhile, 265 new listings pushed the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 57 per cent, keeping inventory growth in check. With 535 active listings—the highest level since before the pandemic—the market has moved toward balanced conditions. However, increased supply has placed downward pressure on prices, with the benchmark price falling to $531,100, down four per cent from last August.

Cochrane experienced 70 sales in August, while 139 new listings entered the market. The resulting 50 per cent sales-to-new-listings ratio is the lowest for August since 2015. Although inventory levels didn’t change significantly, months of supply rose above four. Despite this, benchmark prices remained stable at $589,100—similar to July’s figure and nearly two per cent higher year-over-year. On a year-to-date basis, prices in Cochrane are up by four per cent compared to last year.

Okotoks showed stronger seller conditions in August, as new listings declined significantly while sales remained steady. The sales-to-new-listings ratio surged to 80 per cent, limiting inventory growth. Although inventory levels are 29 per cent higher than last year, they remain 30 per cent below typical August levels. These tighter conditions helped support prices, with the year-to-date benchmark remaining two per cent higher than in 2024. However, some minor monthly price declines were observed.

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From Sellers to Buyers: A Look at Recent Real Estate Trends

The condo market in a major metropolitan area has undergone a significant shift, moving from a highly competitive environment to one that favors those looking to purchase. Following a period of intense activity and bidding wars, the landscape has changed due to a combination of factors. There is now an abundance of available properties, coupled with a notable decrease in demand. This has led to a softening of the market and a general cooling of prices. The change represents a fundamental rebalancing of supply and demand, which is beneficial for prospective buyers who now have a wider selection of units to consider and more leverage in negotiations.

One of the key drivers behind this market correction is the impact of rising borrowing costs. A series of rapid increases in interest rates has made mortgages more expensive for potential buyers. While these rate hikes have recently softened, their cumulative effect has created a more cautious buying environment. Additionally, property developers are facing increased financial pressure due to higher carrying costs on their unsold units. This situation has caused a reduction in new projects coming to market and has prompted a pullback from some financial backers. The combined effect is a market that is no longer characterized by a rush to buy, but rather by a thoughtful and more deliberate approach from all parties involved.

The current state of the market is a direct continuation of a downward trend that began in 2021. The transition from a seller-dominated market to one where buyers have the upper hand is well underway. This shift is not only a result of economic factors like rising interest rates but also of other market dynamics. Increased costs for constructing new homes and a growing supply of completed units have contributed to the excess inventory. The market now features a significant number of completed and unsold new units, creating what is being described as the largest supply of available condos in recent history. This high inventory further pressures sellers to be more competitive with their pricing.

Data from the second quarter of the current year provides a clear picture of the market's performance. The number of new condo sales was drastically lower compared to the same period last year, marking a significant decrease. In fact, sales were a staggering amount below the average of the last decade. This indicates a deep-seated slowdown that goes beyond a short-term fluctuation. The prices for both completed and unsold new condos have also experienced a notable decline, demonstrating the effect of the increased supply and decreased demand. Overall, prices have dropped considerably from their peak in early 2022, confirming the market's descent from its previous highs.

In conclusion, the condominium market has experienced a significant downturn, moving away from a frenzied sellers' market to a more balanced and buyer-friendly one. This is characterized by an abundance of supply, a decline in demand, and falling prices, all of which are linked to rising interest rates and increased costs for developers. The high inventory of completed units and the pull back from new projects have created an environment where buyers have more choice and greater negotiating power. This market correction, which has been ongoing for some time, is reflected in recent sales data, which shows sales and prices have fallen to their lowest point in several years.

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Four Months of Growth: Canada’s Housing Market Strengthens

Over the past four consecutive months, Canada has seen a steady rise in home sales. According to the latest data, national home sales increased by 3.8% from June to July. Compared to July of the previous year, actual sales were up by 6.6%, signaling a strong rebound in the housing market. However, the number of newly listed properties remained mostly flat, showing only a marginal increase of 0.1%. Alongside this activity, the national average sale price also inched up slightly, rising by 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.

This uptick in activity comes after a period of economic uncertainty earlier in the year. Concerns over international trade tensions and a cloudy economic outlook had dampened the spring market, which was expected to be robust. As the year progressed and these uncertainties began to fade, the market started to regain momentum. By mid-year, pent-up demand started to release, resulting in significant gains in home sales since March.

The arrival of fall traditionally brings increased real estate activity in Canada, partly due to the end of summer holidays and a seasonal burst of new listings. September often sees a surge in available properties, and if the current trend continues, the following months could bring even stronger sales. The alignment of returning buyers and an influx of listings typically fuels market activity through October and November.

Currently, the market remains balanced, with a sales-to-new listings ratio at 52%, well within the range considered typical for a stable housing environment. However, with inventory levels tight and sales rising, there's a shift happening toward a sellers’ market. If this pattern of sales outpacing new listings continues, the national market could fully enter sellers’ territory by early next year.

In terms of pricing, the picture varies across the country. While some regions like Quebec and the East Coast have experienced consistent price growth, others like the Lower Mainland of British Columbia have seen declines. Markets such as Ontario remain mixed, with some areas witnessing increases and others holding steady. Overall, the national average home price reached $672,784 in July 2025, suggesting that most of the country is moving toward price stability or gradual growth.

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Study Predicts Relief for Calgary's Housing Market

A recent analysis using artificial intelligence suggests Calgary's housing market may soon experience some relief. The research examined how policy reforms, immigration trends, and construction activity are influencing housing markets across major Canadian cities, including Calgary. By leveraging AI, researchers were able to more effectively analyze real-time data and offer insights into future housing price movements and market conditions.

The study highlights that aggressive construction efforts and shifts in immigration policies are helping to narrow the gap between housing supply and demand in Calgary. In 2024, the city saw median home prices peak at approximately $740,000. However, projections indicate a potential decline of over $100,000 in the coming two years, signaling a shift towards a more balanced market.

Despite this expected price drop, experts caution that any relief in housing affordability might be temporary. A significant influx of new residents is anticipated by 2026, which could reignite demand and place renewed pressure on housing prices. This suggests that the current cooling trend may only last a short while before the market heats up again.

The researchers behind the study hope their findings will support better-informed local development policies. They emphasize the need to streamline building permits and accelerate construction to keep up with growing population pressures. These measures could help moderate price increases and improve overall housing accessibility in the long term.

Looking further ahead, the report estimates that Calgary home prices could stabilize between $650,000 and $730,000 by 2032, assuming housing supply continues to keep pace with demand. This forecast underlines the importance of proactive planning and policy implementation to ensure sustainable growth in the housing sector.

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Home Sales Up, But High Prices Still a Struggle

Home sales in Canada went up again in July, making it the fourth month in a row with more people buying homes. Sales rose by 3.8% from June, and compared to July last year, they were up 6.6%. This increase shows that more buyers are feeling confident and ready to get back into the market after a tough period caused by inflation and global trade issues.

Even though more homes are being sold, the cost of buying one is still a big problem for many people. The average home price dropped slightly to $979,000 in July, which is 5.5% lower than it was last year. This small drop might help a few buyers, but in cities like Toronto, prices are still high. While buyers now have a bit more power to negotiate, homes are still not very affordable for the average person.

Toronto has been leading the country in home sales. Since March, the number of homes sold there has jumped by more than 35%. This is a big turnaround after years of price increases and economic struggles. But not every part of the market is doing well. Condos, especially smaller ones usually bought by investors, are still having a hard time selling. Fewer foreign workers needing rental units might be part of the reason.

Across Canada, there were over 42,000 homes sold in July. The market is getting tighter because the number of homes for sale hasn't changed much, while sales keep rising. The average home price across the country was $672,784 in July — a small increase of 0.6% from last year. If this pattern continues and more homes aren’t listed for sale, prices could start rising faster again.

Experts think total home sales for 2025 might still end up lower than last year, but things could start to improve more in 2026. Affordability is still a challenge, especially with high interest rates. While the central bank isn’t expected to lower rates again soon, the government might bring in new policies in the fall that could affect the housing market. Still, any improvements in affordability will likely be slow and won’t return to how things were before the pandemic.

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Bank of Canada Keeps Interest Rates at 2.75% Amid Trade Concerns and Economic Slowdown

The Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight lending rate at 2.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting where rates have been held steady. This decision comes amid significant economic uncertainty, particularly concerning U.S. trade policy, which continues to be unpredictable. The looming August 1 deadline for trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. has added to this uncertainty, and new trade actions are still being considered. As a result, the Bank is closely monitoring the economic situation, especially in light of the effects on Canada's economic activity.

In its latest economic analysis, the Bank estimated that Canada’s second-quarter GDP contracted by 1.5%, largely due to a decline in exports to the U.S. following the implementation of tariffs. Growth in household spending has also been sluggish, further dampened by ongoing economic uncertainty and weakened labor market conditions, especially in sectors affected by trade restrictions. These factors have contributed to a more cautious outlook for Canada’s economic growth in the near term.

Inflation also remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 1.9% in June. The rise in shelter costs, particularly rent, has been the primary driver of inflation. However, underlying inflation is estimated to be around 2.5%, which remains within the Bank’s target range of 1-3%. The Bank continues to monitor inflation closely, balancing the downward pressures from slower economic activity with the upward pressures from higher tariffs on goods, particularly imports from the U.S.

Looking ahead, the Bank has outlined three potential scenarios for Canada’s economic future based on trade policies. If current tariffs remain in place, GDP growth is expected to pick up modestly to 1% in the second half of 2025 and rise further to 2% by 2027. If tariffs are reduced, GDP growth could rebound more quickly, with less upward pressure on inflation. However, if tariffs escalate, Canada’s GDP is likely to continue declining, further increasing inflationary pressures. Given these uncertainties, the Bank of Canada has emphasized its focus on price stability, particularly through monitoring inflation expectations and the impact of higher tariffs on Canadian exports, business investment, and household spending. The next interest rate announcement is scheduled for mid-September 2025.

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Bridging the Housing Gap: Canada Introduces New Rebate for First-Time Buyers

Canada's housing market has long struggled with a significant supply gap, making it harder for many Canadians to access homeownership. A recent discussion on a popular podcast shed light on the challenges facing first-time homebuyers, drawing attention to the gap between housing supply and demand. In response to this, the Canadian government has introduced a new initiative aimed at addressing the issue. The proposed GST/HST rebate for first-time homebuyers is intended to stimulate new construction and ease the financial burden for those hoping to enter the housing market.

This new rebate complements an existing program, offering additional financial relief to qualified buyers. By reducing the costs associated with purchasing a new home, the initiative aims to make homeownership more achievable for those who have previously struggled with high costs. The broader goal is not just to make housing more affordable but to increase the availability of homes through the stimulation of new construction, which in turn could help meet growing demand.

The importance of such measures has been underscored by recent data, revealing that a large percentage of Canadians are concerned about the increasing unaffordability of housing. Many individuals, particularly younger families, are struggling to see a path to homeownership. The introduction of this rebate is seen as a step in the right direction, providing much-needed relief to first-time buyers and helping to alleviate some of the financial pressures they face. As more Canadians express a desire to own homes, policies like these offer a potential solution to bridge the gap.

The rebate offers a full reduction of the GST/HST on new homes priced up to $1 million, saving buyers significant amounts on their purchases. Homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million are eligible for a partial rebate, while those priced above $1.5 million are excluded from the program. To qualify for this rebate, buyers must meet specific criteria, including being a first-time homebuyer and purchasing a newly built or substantially renovated home. The eligibility window spans from 2025 to 2036, ensuring that the rebate applies to homes built within this timeframe.

While the introduction of this rebate is seen as a positive move, there are suggestions that further measures may be needed if it does not lead to a substantial increase in new housing starts. Expanding the rebate to include more buyers, such as those looking to downsize, could encourage even more construction and help free up existing housing stock. These additional steps may provide further relief for Canadians, ensuring that the housing market can better meet the needs of its growing population. The hope is that these efforts will help create a more balanced housing market, where supply and demand are better aligned, ultimately making homeownership a more attainable goal for many Canadians.

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July 2024 Calgary Real Estate: Inventory Growth and Its Effects on Home Prices

In July, inventory levels across Calgary experienced a notable increase, reaching 6,917 units, the highest recorded since before the pandemic. This surge in supply was particularly prominent in areas that have seen new community development, contributing to a greater variety of housing options. While the overall market saw improvements in supply across all property types and districts, the largest changes were observed in the newer suburban communities, where additional housing has helped stabilize availability.

However, the growing supply has led to downward pressure on home prices in certain parts of the city. Calgary's residential benchmark price has been declining gradually over the last few months, dropping by 4% from its peak in June 2024. Despite this dip, the price reduction is not uniform across all types of homes or areas. While some sectors of the market, like apartments and row-style homes in the North East and North districts, have seen steeper declines, these price drops have not completely undone the gains achieved in recent years.

The slowdown in sales activity further compounded the effects of rising inventory. In July, sales fell by 12% compared to last year, while new listings rose by over 8%, signaling a shift towards a more balanced market. The competition from newly built homes, along with slower sales and a lack of rate cuts by the central bank, contributed to the cooling of the market. Apartments, in particular, faced higher inventory levels, with the months of supply surpassing four months, while detached and semi-detached homes maintained more balanced conditions with around three months of supply.

Detached homes saw a slight uptick in the months of supply, rising to three months for the first time since 2020. Although sales activity slowed to 1,031 units in July, new listings remained robust, resulting in more inventory and a shift towards a balanced market. Notably, price adjustments varied by district, with the North East and East areas experiencing larger price declines of about 5%, while the City Centre saw a modest price increase of nearly 2%. These regional differences reflect how local market conditions can significantly affect overall trends.

In the semi-detached and row home segments, price stability was the overarching trend despite the increase in supply. Semi-detached homes saw a 1% increase in benchmark prices compared to last year, with some districts, such as the City Centre, witnessing higher gains. Row homes, however, experienced a slight decline in price, down by about 4% compared to the previous year. In terms of supply, both property types showed a rise in the months of supply, pushing the market closer to equilibrium, especially in areas with higher inventory levels, such as the North East and North districts.

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The Surprising Trend of Falling Mortgage Balances for Young Families

In Canada, homeownership continues to be a challenge for many, especially with the rising costs of housing and mortgage rates. Yet, a surprising trend has emerged: young families, specifically those with a primary earner under 35 years old, are seeing a decline in their average mortgage balances. Despite the overall increase in mortgage debt across other age groups, the mortgage balances for younger families have dropped by $17,000 since 2022. This shift is notable, as it defies the broader trend of rising debt in the housing market.

One of the main reasons for this reduction is the growing number of young people who are either delaying entering the housing market or opting for more affordable housing options. While the number of new households being formed in this age group has surged, many of these households are choosing to rent rather than buy. With homeownership increasingly out of reach, young families are prioritizing affordability, which results in fewer first-time homebuyers and, consequently, a reduction in average mortgage balances.

Another factor contributing to the decline in mortgage balances is the increasing equity that younger homeowners are building. Over the past couple of years, the value of real estate assets has risen, while the value of mortgages has decreased. This suggests that a growing number of young households are managing to pay off their homes entirely. As more younger families own their properties outright, the overall mortgage balance for this group continues to decline, reflecting higher equity positions and greater financial stability.

Additionally, a rise in prepayments has also played a role in reducing mortgage balances. Faced with higher borrowing costs, many younger homeowners are focusing on paying down their mortgages faster. However, the ability to make these prepayments raises questions about how young families are funding them. For many, financial support from older relatives may be playing a key role. This support, often in the form of gifted down payments, is helping young families qualify for mortgages and reduce their debt obligations, making homeownership more accessible despite the high cost of borrowing.

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Fraud in the Fine Print: What Every Canadian Homebuyer Should Know

Real estate fraud in Canada has become an increasingly concerning issue, impacting both homebuyers and financial institutions. This type of fraud typically involves misrepresentation of information, such as income, employment status, or property ownership, with the goal of securing a mortgage or property under false pretenses. As housing prices have risen and affordability has become more difficult, some individuals are turning to dishonest methods to gain access to financing or to profit from illegal schemes. The effects of such fraud are far-reaching, often resulting in significant financial losses for banks, lenders, and even unsuspecting homeowners.

One common form of real estate fraud is mortgage fraud. This happens when someone provides false or misleading information on a mortgage application—such as inflating income or hiding debts—to qualify for a loan they otherwise wouldn’t receive. Sometimes, this is done by the buyer, but it can also involve real estate professionals or mortgage brokers who intentionally manipulate documents. When the borrower is unable to make payments, lenders are left with unpaid loans and foreclosed properties, which can destabilize the market if widespread.

Title fraud is another serious type of scam, where criminals steal someone’s identity and use it to transfer ownership of a property without the true owner’s knowledge. Once they have control of the title, they can take out loans using the property as collateral or even attempt to sell it. Victims of title fraud often only discover the crime after receiving foreclosure notices or discovering new debts in their name. Protecting against this kind of fraud requires careful monitoring, proper ID verification, and land registry protections.

To combat the rise in real estate fraud, financial institutions and industry regulators are calling for stronger safeguards. One recommendation is the implementation of fast, secure income and identity verification systems, which would reduce the ability for fraudulent applications to succeed. Increased awareness and education are also key—both buyers and professionals need to understand the risks, recognize red flags, and report suspicious activity early. The government, too, is being urged to update policies to better reflect the complexity and technology of modern real estate transactions.

One of the most effective ways to protect yourself from real estate fraud is to work with a trusted and experienced REALTOR® and mortgage broker. These professionals understand the process thoroughly and are trained to detect inconsistencies or warning signs in transactions. A reputable REALTOR® will guide you through paperwork, confirm property details, and ensure everything is legally sound. Similarly, a qualified mortgage broker will help you secure financing that is transparent and based on verified information. Choosing professionals with strong reputations and credentials can significantly reduce your risk and give you peace of mind during one of the most important financial decisions of your life.

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Real Estate Outlook 2025: Market Shows Signs of Recovery Amid Uncertainty

The Canadian real estate market showed signs of recovery in June, with national home sales increasing for the second consecutive month. Sales rose by 2.8% from May to June, largely driven by strong activity in the Greater Toronto Area, where cumulative growth since April reached 17.4%. Despite these monthly gains, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its annual forecast, now expecting a 3% drop in total home sales compared to 2024. While prices have stabilized, overall market performance remains below previous highs, and CREA notes that conditions vary greatly by region.

One notable shift is the decrease in new property listings, which fell by 2.9% in June. This came after several months of rising inventory. At the same time, the national average sale price saw a 1.3% year-over-year decrease. CREA is also predicting a 1.7% drop in average home prices compared to last year. These figures suggest that although prices have steadied, overall affordability remains a concern, and the pace of new listings may not be enough to balance market dynamics fully.

Falling interest rates are providing some relief to buyers, with the Bank of Canada reducing its policy rate from 5% in April to 2.75% currently. Lower rates can increase purchasing power, and experts believe this could help unlock more buyer demand later in the year. However, the market still faces challenges. The Toronto condo market, for example, has seen a dramatic slowdown. Sales of condominium apartments in the first quarter of 2025 were down 21.7% compared to the same period in 2024, and new condo sales are reportedly at their lowest level in 30 years.

Despite these hurdles, CREA believes the housing market is gradually turning a corner. Job stability, lower rates, and rising inventory could create favorable conditions for those planning long-term homeownership. Activity is expected to rebound in 2026, with national sales projected to grow by 6.3%. Still, CREA cautions that economic uncertainty remains high, and the recent announcement of new U.S. tariffs on Canada could further complicate the outlook. Regional differences will continue to play a key role, with some provinces like British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario expected to post declines, while others may show moderate growth.

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