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Investors have increased their expectations that interest rates will rise in December and beyond, with rates potentially reaching three per cent. The central bank recently held its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent for the seventh consecutive time. Following the announcement, market expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in December rose to nearly 90 per cent, up from roughly 60 per cent the previous day.

Expectations for additional increases next year have also grown. Investors are now largely anticipating at least one 25-basis-point hike in January, while some are betting on as many as three increases by the middle of the year. However, some analysts believe these expectations may be too aggressive, arguing that while some tightening could eventually be justified by economic data, current market pricing may be overstating the likely pace of increases.

The outlook is being influenced by concerns that inflation could spread to other parts of the economy. Ongoing international conflicts and trade tensions have increased uncertainty, while new tariffs and counter-tariffs could put additional pressure on prices. Although some earlier expectations of rising inflation were considered premature, the combination of renewed inflation concerns and changes in expectations for U.S. interest rates has strengthened the case for higher Canadian rates.

Markets are also increasingly pricing in the possibility of higher interest rates in the United States. Expectations for a 25-basis-point increase at the next U.S. meeting have risen significantly, while investors are fully pricing in one increase by December and assigning a substantial probability to another. Changes in the U.S. interest-rate outlook are important for Canada because monetary policy in the two countries is closely connected, influencing expectations for the direction of Canadian rates.

A rate increase could also be considered at the central bank’s October meeting, when an updated economic and inflation report is scheduled to be released. The latest policy statement indicated that inflation remains too high, that risks to higher inflation have increased, and that the two per cent inflation target will remain a key focus for future decisions. Markets currently see just over a 40 per cent chance of an October increase, while forecasts suggest rates could reach 2.75 per cent by the end of the year and three per cent in 2027.

Calgary’s housing market continued to see slower activity in August 2026, with both sales and new listings declining compared with the same period in 2025. Sales reached 1,660 units, down 16 per cent year over year, while new listings fell nearly 10 per cent to 3,141 units. The slowdown was not consistent across all price ranges, as homes priced above $1 million recorded sales gains, particularly among detached and semi-detached properties. Overall inventory stood at 6,509 units, while slower sales pushed the market to nearly four months of supply. Conditions varied considerably by property type, with apartment-style homes facing almost six months of supply compared with just over three months for lower-density detached homes. 

Detached and semi-detached properties continued to show relatively balanced market conditions and more stable pricing than higher-density housing. Detached home sales fell 12 per cent to 875 units, while new listings declined to 1,635 units, pushing supply above three months. The benchmark price for detached homes was $744,300, roughly unchanged from July and one per cent lower than last year. Semi-detached sales also eased, bringing year-to-date sales to 1,516 units, slightly below 2025 levels. Inventory remained nearly five per cent higher than last year, but prices stayed relatively stable, with the benchmark reaching $690,500, nearly one per cent higher than a year earlier.

Row housing continued to experience weaker demand, with sales contributing to a 15 per cent year-to-date decline. Additional new-home and rental supply has contributed to the reduced resale demand, while fewer new listings have helped prevent inventory from increasing further. Supply remained close to four months, although conditions differed by location. Prices declined across all areas, with the benchmark reaching $415,200 in August, nearly one per cent lower than July and five per cent below last year. Apartment-style condominiums remained the most oversupplied segment, with nearly six months of supply and a 26 per cent year-to-date decline in sales. The benchmark price fell to $295,400, down nearly one per cent from July and eight per cent from 2025, and almost 13 per cent below its August 2024 peak.

In surrounding communities, market conditions varied significantly. Airdrie recorded a 13 per cent year-to-date decline in sales, while new listings fell seven per cent, helping keep supply below four months despite elevated inventory. Its benchmark price declined to $508,800, down more than four per cent from a year earlier. Cochrane saw sales improve, contributing to a year-to-date increase of more than five per cent, while stronger sales reduced supply to just over three months. Despite the improved activity, its benchmark price fell two per cent year over year. Okotoks continued to experience limited new listings and relatively tight conditions, with just over two months of supply and a benchmark price of $608,400, nearly two per cent below last year. 

Chestermere experienced the most pronounced imbalance among the surrounding markets, as sales declined faster than new listings. The sales-to-new-listings ratio fell below 30 per cent, contributing to elevated inventory and nine months of supply. The higher level of available homes, combined with weaker sales, continued to put downward pressure on prices, which were more than one per cent below 2025 levels. Overall, the August market reflected a clear divide between relatively balanced lower-density housing and more challenging conditions in higher-density segments, where elevated supply and weaker demand continued to weigh on sales and prices.