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Vancouver’s Struggling Housing Market

The housing market in Metro Vancouver continues to pose significant challenges for prospective homebuyers, despite recent improvements in affordability for certain property types. Although slower sales and slightly more affordable condos offer a glimmer of hope, the underlying issues remain concerning. Single-family homes, which are still out of reach for most first-time buyers, dominate the region's real estate market. While some price reductions and lower interest rates have helped make condos more accessible, they still consume a substantial portion of household income. Without financial assistance from family or other sources, many buyers are left struggling to enter the market, making Vancouver's housing crisis one of the most expensive in the country.

Affordability is notably better in the condo market, where recent price drops and the easing of mortgage rates have provided some relief. For example, the cost of purchasing a condo in Vancouver now absorbs 48 percent of the average household income, a significant improvement from 60 percent in late 2023. However, even with these changes, the affordability gap between Vancouver and other Canadian cities remains stark, especially when compared to places like Calgary, where condos absorb only 22 percent of household income. Despite the relative affordability of condos, overall home sales in Metro Vancouver have continued to stagnate, as many buyers expect further price declines. This, combined with a rising number of active listings, has created a buyer's market, but one where prices are under downward pressure, benefiting those who can afford to wait.

Looking ahead, the housing market’s long-term trajectory is uncertain. While demographic shifts and increasing immigration suggest a potential rebound in home sales by the late 2020s, the current market conditions do not inspire immediate optimism. Although new housing supply is at a high, with thousands of new homes being completed each month, the construction industry faces significant downturns, with layoffs and cancellations of projects becoming more common. This downturn in construction is expected to exacerbate housing shortages in the future, potentially driving prices back up. To address these challenges, experts argue that improving affordability in the short term will require a combination of lower interest rates, flat or falling home prices, and a more robust increase in household incomes. Additionally, addressing the bureaucratic hurdles in the development process, such as reducing development charges and streamlining permits, could alleviate some of the pressure on the housing market and help stabilize costs in the long run.

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Canada's Ambitious Housing Plan

Canada’s plan to double homebuilding over the next decade has generated cautious optimism, with experts recognizing the potential of new construction methods but raising concerns about implementation. The government’s investment in modular and prefabricated construction methods is seen as a critical move, especially given the country’s underdeveloped manufactured-home sector. By adopting these technologies, Canada could not only accelerate housing production but also create an export industry, utilizing its abundant raw materials. However, the success of this strategy will depend on the private sector’s ability to embrace these new techniques and on whether builders can overcome the prevailing uncertainty about the market.

While the government’s $13 billion investment in the Build Canada Homes program is a promising start, there are still many unanswered questions about how the plan will unfold. The goal of increasing housing starts to 500,000 annually by 2034—up from 245,000 in 2024—remains ambitious, and current plans suggest that only a small portion of that target will be met through government-led projects. Most of the construction is expected to be handled by private developers, who will be incentivized through financial support and fast-tracked processes. This reliance on the private sector raises concerns about whether the necessary investment and resources will materialize on the ground.

One key issue is the potential lack of focus on social housing, an area where the private sector has historically been less active. Experts suggest that while large-scale projects in major cities are important, the government should also direct resources toward smaller municipalities and rural areas, where the housing crisis is often more acute. Without a clear breakdown of the $13 billion and how it will be allocated, there are concerns that funding may be disproportionately focused on larger urban centers, leaving smaller communities underserved. Additionally, scaling up modular construction to the levels needed for this plan will require substantial investment in both infrastructure and workforce development, adding complexity to an already challenging undertaking.

The labor shortage in the construction industry is another critical challenge to the success of this housing initiative. According to a report from Deloitte Canada, the country will need an additional 290,000 workers in the construction sector by 2030 to meet the goal of doubling homebuilding. Even with increased productivity, this gap is unlikely to be bridged without significant investments in workforce development and attracting new talent to the industry. With an aging workforce and growing demand for public infrastructure projects, Canada will need to tap into diverse labor pools, including underrepresented groups, and increase efforts to recruit younger workers and women into the field.

In conclusion, while the federal government’s housing plan offers a potential path forward for addressing Canada’s housing crisis, its success will depend on overcoming a range of hurdles. The plan’s focus on modular construction and private-sector involvement is promising, but it requires clear policy direction, adequate investment, and a skilled workforce to meet the ambitious target. If these challenges are addressed, Canada could see a transformation in its housing sector that helps meet both immediate needs and long-term goals. However, without a comprehensive strategy to address these obstacles, the plan may struggle to reach its full potential.

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Canadian Housing Market Sees Resurgence in October

After a brief pause in September, the Canadian housing market saw a resurgence in October, with home sales increasing by 0.9% month-over-month. This uptick follows a steady trend that had been ongoing since April, suggesting that underlying demand for homes remains resilient despite broader economic uncertainties. The rise in sales activity comes at a time when interest rates are approaching levels that could stimulate more activity in the market, fueling expectations for continued growth in housing demand into 2026. However, this anticipated market boost is likely to be tempered by ongoing economic challenges, including inflation concerns and global financial instability.

In October, the number of new listings saw a slight decline of 1.4%, which, when combined with rising sales, led to a tightening in the sales-to-new listings ratio, reaching 52.2%. While this figure indicates a more active market, it remains below the long-term average of 54.9%, suggesting the market is not yet fully balanced. The MLS® Home Price Index also saw a modest 0.2% increase from September, though it remains down 3% compared to the same time last year. On a national scale, the average home price in Canada was reported at just over $690,000, reflecting a slight year-over-year decrease of 1.1%.

Looking ahead to the winter months and into 2026, there are signs that demand is building, with the number of properties listed for sale remaining close to the long-term average. The market's inventory at the end of October stood at 4.4 months, indicating a relatively stable environment, though still below the five-month long-term average. This suggests that while conditions are conducive for sellers, they are not extreme enough to create a clear seller’s market. As the spring market approaches, experts are keeping a close eye on the potential for pent-up demand to drive significant market movement, with expectations that the upcoming months could bring further shifts in housing trends.

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Longer Mortgages, Bigger Costs

The proposal for a 50-year mortgage, suggested in the U.S., has sparked mixed reactions. While it could lower monthly payments for homebuyers, experts argue the long-term costs are significant. Extending the loan period means paying much more in interest, as early payments would mainly cover interest rather than the principal. This slow build-up of equity could leave homeowners vulnerable to financial risk, especially if market conditions change.

Critics also raise concerns about the interest rates on a 50-year mortgage, which would likely be higher than a 30-year loan, reducing any potential savings. With minimal savings in monthly payments, and the risk of slow equity growth, the 50-year mortgage may not offer the benefits it's touted to provide. Many experts believe the solution to housing affordability lies in increasing housing supply, not extending mortgage terms.

In Canada, the idea of extending mortgage amortization periods is unlikely to gain traction due to differences in the mortgage systems. Unlike the U.S., where mortgages are securitized and sold, Canada's system is more risk-averse, relying on deposits for mortgage funding. This makes longer mortgages less feasible in Canada. Over the past two decades, Canada has reduced amortization periods, and there’s little appetite for extending them again.

Canada has already tightened rules, cutting amortization from 40 years to 35 years after the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the standard amortization is 25 years for insured borrowers and 30 years for uninsured borrowers. While there have been discussions about extending amortization for first-time homebuyers, these changes have been limited, and there is no indication that Canada will follow the U.S. model of longer mortgages in the near future.

Experts caution against extending mortgage terms in both countries, arguing that while it might ease monthly payments, it increases long-term financial risk. The focus, they say, should be on increasing housing supply to address affordability rather than offering longer loan periods.

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Preparing for 2026 in Uncertain Times

The latest federal budget brings mixed signals for the economy, with rising immigration numbers and uncertainty about inflation and interest rates. While the market may not bounce back immediately, demand will eventually rise again. The real challenge for many agents isn’t the market itself — it’s the inaction that's holding them back. Waiting for a perfect moment to act means you’re already behind. Opportunity doesn’t announce itself; it’s created by those who act now, even in uncertain times.

The real issue many agents are facing isn’t a tough market, it’s a lack of consistent effort. From neglecting key contacts and procrastinating on follow-ups, to relying too heavily on low-converting ads, agents are leaving money on the table. Success comes from doing the work: making calls, prospecting regularly, and focusing on relationships. While AI tools can help with tasks like writing content, they can't replace the essential work of staying visible and consistently engaging with your network.

To make the most of the coming year, start planning now. Review your results from this year, set a solid marketing budget, and break your goals down into actionable steps. Time-block your schedule, focus on daily tasks like calls and follow-ups, and use AI to amplify your efforts, not replace them. The market may be unpredictable, but your effort doesn’t have to be. If you want to be ready for 2026, the time to prepare is now.

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October Sees Solid Sales in Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan's housing market maintained its strength in October, posting the second-highest sales numbers ever recorded for the month. With 1,433 homes sold, sales were slightly down—by almost six percent—compared to last year’s record-breaking figures. However, these results still far exceed historical norms, marking the 28th consecutive month of above-average sales activity that began in mid-2023. This ongoing momentum reflects strong, sustained demand in the province’s real estate market, despite the slight dip in sales.

The number of new listings also saw a notable uptick in October, with 1,922 homes coming onto the market, an 11 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024. Despite this rise in listings, available inventory remained well below long-term averages, largely due to continued high sales volume. The result is a market where supply is still significantly constrained—nearly 50 percent lower than the 10-year average—posing an ongoing challenge for buyers trying to find available homes in the province.

Even amidst global economic uncertainty and broader market shifts, Saskatchewan's housing sector continues to show remarkable resilience. The benchmark price for residential properties in the province stood at $362,700 in October, down slightly from September but still nearly six percent higher than the same time last year. This sustained price growth, alongside continued strong sales in major urban centers like Saskatoon and Regina, suggests a high level of confidence in Saskatchewan’s real estate market. As the year progresses, the outlook remains positive, with expectations for sales to remain above historical averages well into November.

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Lower Interest Rates: What It Means for Consumers, Small Businesses, and the Housing Market

The Bank of Canada has recently reduced its key interest rate, a move that continues the pattern of rate cuts that began earlier in 2024. This decision directly affects borrowing costs across various sectors of the economy, from consumers to businesses. Interest rates, in simple terms, are the costs of borrowing money. They play a significant role in shaping both individual financial decisions and broader economic conditions. When interest rates are high, borrowing becomes more expensive, which typically discourages spending. Conversely, lower rates make borrowing cheaper, often encouraging both consumers and businesses to spend more, stimulating economic activity.

For homeowners, particularly those with variable-rate mortgages, interest rate cuts can provide immediate financial relief. As the Bank of Canada lowers its key rate, banks adjust their prime rates, leading to reduced monthly mortgage payments for those with variable rates. This change can also have a ripple effect in the housing market. Potential homebuyers may be more inclined to make a purchase when borrowing becomes more affordable. Furthermore, the lower rates might prompt lenders to offer more attractive fixed mortgage rates, making homeownership more accessible. As a result, reduced interest rates often contribute to an uptick in housing sales, which can help fuel broader economic growth.

Small businesses are also affected by changes in interest rates, though the impact is more nuanced. On the one hand, lower borrowing costs can ease the financial burden on small businesses, especially those that carry variable-rate loans for things like property or equipment. This relief might allow business owners to invest in expansion, hire more staff, or purchase new assets. However, the broader economic landscape, marked by trade uncertainties and rising operational costs, may temper the positive effects of rate cuts. Many small business owners remain cautious, uncertain about the future due to factors like labor shortages and rising insurance premiums. Consequently, while lower interest rates may help reduce some immediate costs, they don’t necessarily translate into an optimistic outlook for businesses dealing with other pressures.

For individual consumers, lower interest rates often mean cheaper loans, including car loans and credit lines. The reduction in borrowing costs can free up disposable income, allowing consumers to spend on goods and services, which further stimulates the economy. However, not all financial activities benefit from rate cuts. Savers, for instance, may see their returns on savings accounts and fixed-term investments like Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs) decline. This can be frustrating for those relying on interest income. On the other hand, individuals with investments in the stock market, particularly in bonds, might see their portfolios benefit as bond prices typically rise when interest rates fall. The net impact on personal finances depends largely on one's asset mix and financial priorities.

While the immediate effects of interest rate changes are visible, it takes time for the full economic consequences to play out. Economists suggest that it can take about a year and a half for rate cuts to work their way through the economy. As banks adjust their lending rates, these changes influence consumer behavior and business decision-making. The Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions are often seen as a signal of the central bank's outlook on the economy, and they can shape public confidence. This in turn can affect how Canadians approach spending, saving, and investing, with ripples that extend far beyond the financial sector. Through these mechanisms, the Bank of Canada exercises a form of "soft power" in guiding economic expectations and behavior across the country.

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