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A recent analysis using artificial intelligence suggests Calgary's housing market may soon experience some relief. The research examined how policy reforms, immigration trends, and construction activity are influencing housing markets across major Canadian cities, including Calgary. By leveraging AI, researchers were able to more effectively analyze real-time data and offer insights into future housing price movements and market conditions.

The study highlights that aggressive construction efforts and shifts in immigration policies are helping to narrow the gap between housing supply and demand in Calgary. In 2024, the city saw median home prices peak at approximately $740,000. However, projections indicate a potential decline of over $100,000 in the coming two years, signaling a shift towards a more balanced market.

Despite this expected price drop, experts caution that any relief in housing affordability might be temporary. A significant influx of new residents is anticipated by 2026, which could reignite demand and place renewed pressure on housing prices. This suggests that the current cooling trend may only last a short while before the market heats up again.

The researchers behind the study hope their findings will support better-informed local development policies. They emphasize the need to streamline building permits and accelerate construction to keep up with growing population pressures. These measures could help moderate price increases and improve overall housing accessibility in the long term.

Looking further ahead, the report estimates that Calgary home prices could stabilize between $650,000 and $730,000 by 2032, assuming housing supply continues to keep pace with demand. This forecast underlines the importance of proactive planning and policy implementation to ensure sustainable growth in the housing sector.

Home sales in Canada went up again in July, making it the fourth month in a row with more people buying homes. Sales rose by 3.8% from June, and compared to July last year, they were up 6.6%. This increase shows that more buyers are feeling confident and ready to get back into the market after a tough period caused by inflation and global trade issues.

Even though more homes are being sold, the cost of buying one is still a big problem for many people. The average home price dropped slightly to $979,000 in July, which is 5.5% lower than it was last year. This small drop might help a few buyers, but in cities like Toronto, prices are still high. While buyers now have a bit more power to negotiate, homes are still not very affordable for the average person.

Toronto has been leading the country in home sales. Since March, the number of homes sold there has jumped by more than 35%. This is a big turnaround after years of price increases and economic struggles. But not every part of the market is doing well. Condos, especially smaller ones usually bought by investors, are still having a hard time selling. Fewer foreign workers needing rental units might be part of the reason.

Across Canada, there were over 42,000 homes sold in July. The market is getting tighter because the number of homes for sale hasn't changed much, while sales keep rising. The average home price across the country was $672,784 in July — a small increase of 0.6% from last year. If this pattern continues and more homes aren’t listed for sale, prices could start rising faster again.

Experts think total home sales for 2025 might still end up lower than last year, but things could start to improve more in 2026. Affordability is still a challenge, especially with high interest rates. While the central bank isn’t expected to lower rates again soon, the government might bring in new policies in the fall that could affect the housing market. Still, any improvements in affordability will likely be slow and won’t return to how things were before the pandemic.

The Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight lending rate at 2.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting where rates have been held steady. This decision comes amid significant economic uncertainty, particularly concerning U.S. trade policy, which continues to be unpredictable. The looming August 1 deadline for trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. has added to this uncertainty, and new trade actions are still being considered. As a result, the Bank is closely monitoring the economic situation, especially in light of the effects on Canada's economic activity.

In its latest economic analysis, the Bank estimated that Canada’s second-quarter GDP contracted by 1.5%, largely due to a decline in exports to the U.S. following the implementation of tariffs. Growth in household spending has also been sluggish, further dampened by ongoing economic uncertainty and weakened labor market conditions, especially in sectors affected by trade restrictions. These factors have contributed to a more cautious outlook for Canada’s economic growth in the near term.

Inflation also remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 1.9% in June. The rise in shelter costs, particularly rent, has been the primary driver of inflation. However, underlying inflation is estimated to be around 2.5%, which remains within the Bank’s target range of 1-3%. The Bank continues to monitor inflation closely, balancing the downward pressures from slower economic activity with the upward pressures from higher tariffs on goods, particularly imports from the U.S.

Looking ahead, the Bank has outlined three potential scenarios for Canada’s economic future based on trade policies. If current tariffs remain in place, GDP growth is expected to pick up modestly to 1% in the second half of 2025 and rise further to 2% by 2027. If tariffs are reduced, GDP growth could rebound more quickly, with less upward pressure on inflation. However, if tariffs escalate, Canada’s GDP is likely to continue declining, further increasing inflationary pressures. Given these uncertainties, the Bank of Canada has emphasized its focus on price stability, particularly through monitoring inflation expectations and the impact of higher tariffs on Canadian exports, business investment, and household spending. The next interest rate announcement is scheduled for mid-September 2025.

Canada's housing market has long struggled with a significant supply gap, making it harder for many Canadians to access homeownership. A recent discussion on a popular podcast shed light on the challenges facing first-time homebuyers, drawing attention to the gap between housing supply and demand. In response to this, the Canadian government has introduced a new initiative aimed at addressing the issue. The proposed GST/HST rebate for first-time homebuyers is intended to stimulate new construction and ease the financial burden for those hoping to enter the housing market.

This new rebate complements an existing program, offering additional financial relief to qualified buyers. By reducing the costs associated with purchasing a new home, the initiative aims to make homeownership more achievable for those who have previously struggled with high costs. The broader goal is not just to make housing more affordable but to increase the availability of homes through the stimulation of new construction, which in turn could help meet growing demand.

The importance of such measures has been underscored by recent data, revealing that a large percentage of Canadians are concerned about the increasing unaffordability of housing. Many individuals, particularly younger families, are struggling to see a path to homeownership. The introduction of this rebate is seen as a step in the right direction, providing much-needed relief to first-time buyers and helping to alleviate some of the financial pressures they face. As more Canadians express a desire to own homes, policies like these offer a potential solution to bridge the gap.

The rebate offers a full reduction of the GST/HST on new homes priced up to $1 million, saving buyers significant amounts on their purchases. Homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million are eligible for a partial rebate, while those priced above $1.5 million are excluded from the program. To qualify for this rebate, buyers must meet specific criteria, including being a first-time homebuyer and purchasing a newly built or substantially renovated home. The eligibility window spans from 2025 to 2036, ensuring that the rebate applies to homes built within this timeframe.

While the introduction of this rebate is seen as a positive move, there are suggestions that further measures may be needed if it does not lead to a substantial increase in new housing starts. Expanding the rebate to include more buyers, such as those looking to downsize, could encourage even more construction and help free up existing housing stock. These additional steps may provide further relief for Canadians, ensuring that the housing market can better meet the needs of its growing population. The hope is that these efforts will help create a more balanced housing market, where supply and demand are better aligned, ultimately making homeownership a more attainable goal for many Canadians.

In July, inventory levels across Calgary experienced a notable increase, reaching 6,917 units, the highest recorded since before the pandemic. This surge in supply was particularly prominent in areas that have seen new community development, contributing to a greater variety of housing options. While the overall market saw improvements in supply across all property types and districts, the largest changes were observed in the newer suburban communities, where additional housing has helped stabilize availability.

However, the growing supply has led to downward pressure on home prices in certain parts of the city. Calgary's residential benchmark price has been declining gradually over the last few months, dropping by 4% from its peak in June 2024. Despite this dip, the price reduction is not uniform across all types of homes or areas. While some sectors of the market, like apartments and row-style homes in the North East and North districts, have seen steeper declines, these price drops have not completely undone the gains achieved in recent years.

The slowdown in sales activity further compounded the effects of rising inventory. In July, sales fell by 12% compared to last year, while new listings rose by over 8%, signaling a shift towards a more balanced market. The competition from newly built homes, along with slower sales and a lack of rate cuts by the central bank, contributed to the cooling of the market. Apartments, in particular, faced higher inventory levels, with the months of supply surpassing four months, while detached and semi-detached homes maintained more balanced conditions with around three months of supply.

Detached homes saw a slight uptick in the months of supply, rising to three months for the first time since 2020. Although sales activity slowed to 1,031 units in July, new listings remained robust, resulting in more inventory and a shift towards a balanced market. Notably, price adjustments varied by district, with the North East and East areas experiencing larger price declines of about 5%, while the City Centre saw a modest price increase of nearly 2%. These regional differences reflect how local market conditions can significantly affect overall trends.

In the semi-detached and row home segments, price stability was the overarching trend despite the increase in supply. Semi-detached homes saw a 1% increase in benchmark prices compared to last year, with some districts, such as the City Centre, witnessing higher gains. Row homes, however, experienced a slight decline in price, down by about 4% compared to the previous year. In terms of supply, both property types showed a rise in the months of supply, pushing the market closer to equilibrium, especially in areas with higher inventory levels, such as the North East and North districts.